000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250927 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jan 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from a 1008 mb low pressure over Colombia southwest to 04N77W and to 01N83W. The monsoon trough axis extends from 07N85W to 07N94W to 08N100W to 09N111W. Trough extends from 09N111W to low pressure near 10N118W 1010 mb. It resumes at 08N128W and to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the monsoon trough between 85W-87W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Light and variable winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Little change is expected with these winds through tonight, then strong north winds will develop over the Gulf early on Wed. Latest scatterometer satellite data shows generally gentle to moderate winds South of Puerto Vallarta to the offshore waters that border Mexico and Guatemala, with the exception of moderate to fresh north to northwest winds over the central and southern Gulf of Baja California. Light to moderate winds are off of Baja California south of Bahia Tortugas. Seas are 3-4 ft in the central Gulf of California and 2-3 ft elsewhere in the Gulf. Seas are 4-6 ft offshore Baja California due to a west to northwest swell, except for higher seas of 6-8 ft north of Cabo San Lazaro due to a west to northwest swell. An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is noted well offshore southwest of Manzanillo from 12N to 16N between 103W- 110W. This activity is being sustained by an upper-level trough that has a base near 110W. This activity is translating eastward. For the forecast, northwest swell over the waters off Baja California will propagate as far south as Cabo San Lazaro tonight. Looking ahead, gap winds to gale-force speeds are possible over the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Fri night as a strong cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico into southern Mexico. Marine conditions will deteriorate in the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Fri night and through the upcoming weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong east gap winds are across the Papagayo, while light to gentle variable winds along with seas to 6 ft are elsewhere, except for moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of Panama and moderate south to southwest winds in the vicinity of Ecuador. For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds across the Papagayo will diminish to mainly fresh speeds this morning and continue through Sat, then pulse back up to strong speeds Sat night. Winds will pulse moderate to fresh speeds across the Gulf of Panama during the next few days. Over the remainder of area, winds should remain tranquil for the next several days. Large northwest swell from an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap-wind gale event will infiltrate the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters on Sat and Sat night building the seas there to around 14 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA High pressure of 1024 mb is analyzed north of the area near 36N128W, with a ridge extending southeastward to 26N216W and to just north of the Revillagigedo Islands. A trough is analyzed from near 29N129W to 24N130W, another trough extends from near 17N129W to 10N132W and another one extends from near 19N135W to west of the area at 15N140W. A trough that is well to the northwest of the area extends south-southwestward to 30N140W and to west of the area near 27N143W. Satellite water-vapor imagery depicts a large and well-pronounced nearly stationary mid to upper-level low centered just west of the area near 18N141W. Divergence aloft on the east side of this system is supporting a large area of moderate rain, with embedded numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms from 10N to about 22N and between 128W- 139W. This activity is helping to maintain an area of fresh east winds over the waters from 18N-23N between 130W-140W. Northwest swell is producing combined wave heights of 8-10 ft over the waters from 05N to 30N and between 121W-140W. Wave heights are 5-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the west to northwest will decrease in coverage over the next 36-48 hours while it subsides. Gentle to generally moderate winds will continue across the basin through the end of the week. $$ Aguirre