000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242151 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jan 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from a 1008 mb low pressure over Colombia to 09N75W to 08N83W, where scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N113W. Another ITCZ segment extends from 08N120W to 07N139W. Scattered showers noted along the ITCZ from 05N to 07N between 105W to 109W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Latest scatterometer satellite data shows light to moderate anticyclonic flow across the Gulf of Mexico indicating the high pressure continues to weaken as it shifts eastward. Light to moderate north to northeast gap winds will continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec into tonight. Scatterometer satellite data indicates gentle to moderate winds South of Puerto Vallarta to San Miguel, Salvador, except moderate to fresh north to northwest winds over the central and southern Gulf of Baja California. Light to moderate are noted off of Baja California south of Bahia Tortugas. Latest altimeter data indicates seas of 3-4 ft off of Baja California and 3-5 ft in the central Gulf of California. The abundant atmospheric moisture noted west of central Mexico and southern Baja California due to an upper-level trough that is near 120W is gradually decreasing over water and moving further inland. Within this area of moisture there are less patches of rain present. This activity is spreading east-northeastward to the western part of central Mexico. Satellite imagery over recent hours indicate that this moisture is decreasing with time. For the forecast, large northwest swell will enter the waters off Baja California this afternoon into tonight, reaching as far south as Cabo San Lazaro by late Tue. Looking ahead, gap winds quickly reaching to gale force over the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late Fri night as a strong cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico into southern Mexico deteriorating conditions over the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Latest shows the presence of fresh to strong east gap winds across the Papagayo region as a strong high pressure over the western Atlantic extends to the northern Caribbean and continues to support a tight pressure gradient. Light to gentle variable winds with seas to 6 ft are elsewhere, except for moderate southwest winds off the coast of Colombia and Ecuador. For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through tonight, with seas building to 8 ft. These winds will slightly improve to fresh speeds afterwards through for the rest of the week. Winds will pulse moderate to fresh across the Gulf of Panama through the next few days. Over the remainder of area, winds should remain tranquil for the next several days. Decaying northwest to north swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters today. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A broad area of low pressure system is located west of the area near 15N146W. This feature is associated with a persistent and broad mid to upper-level trough over the region and a rather vigorous large mid to upper-level low that is noted on water vapor imagery west of the area near 17N143W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh winds from 18N to 27N east of 138W. A large area of moderate rain, with embedded numerous showers and possible thunderstorms exists from 10N to 23N between 128W- 139W. Northwest swell producing combined wave heights of 8-10 ft is over the area north of 10N and west of about 127W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and mostly 4-6 ft seas are noted. East of 110W, combined seas are 5-6 ft due to a mix of northeast to east swell originating from the gap-wind events over the Tehuantepec and Papagayo regions that is mixing with longer period northwest and southeast swell. For the forecast, large swell will continue to propagate eastward across the northwest part of the basin, with seas ranging between 8-11 ft during the next few days. The surface trough in the vicinity of 120W will prevail across the area over the next few days with convection. A dissipating stationary front reaches the far northwest part of the area near 30N140W. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin through the end of the week. $$ Torres