000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241002 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Jan 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from low pressure over Colombia to 08N79W to 09N85W to 07N92W to 06N97W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N106W, where it pauses. Low pressure of 1013 mb is near 10N115W. A trough extends from the low to 13N113W, and another one extends from the low to 08N118W and to 08N122W. Another ITCZ segment extends from 08N122W to 09N128W to 10N132W and to beyond 09N140W. No significant convection is noted. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the ongoing Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Overnight scatterometer satellite data shows fresh to strong north to northeast gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will diminish to mainly fresh speeds this morning as high pressure north of the area over the Gulf of Mexico weakens and shifts eastward. Outside of the gap wind plume in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the overnight scatterometer satellite data shows gentle to moderate winds, except for moderate to fresh northwest over the central and southern Gulf of California. Locally strong winds are possible over the southern Gulf of California per a recent ship observation from there. Light to gentle northwest to north winds are over the northern Gulf of California. Latest altimeter data indicates seas of 4-6 ft due to a northwest swell. Seas are 2-4 ft in the Gulf of California. Abundant atmospheric moisture is noted west of central Mexico and southern Baja California due to an upper-level trough that is near 120W, Within this area of moisture there are patches of rain along with scattered showers. This activity is spreading east-northeastward to inland the western part of central Mexico and over southern Baja California. Satellite imagery over recent hours indicate that this this moisture is decreasing with time. For the forecast, large northwest swell will enter the waters off Baja California Mon and Mon night, reaching as far south as Cabo San Lazaro by late Tue. Looking ahead, gap winds reaching to gale force are possible over the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Fri night as a cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico into southern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic extending to the northern Caribbean continues to support a tight pressure gradient enhancing fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds across the Papagayo region with seas to 8 ft. Light to gentle variable winds with seas to 6 ft are elsewhere, except for moderate southwest winds off the coast of Colombia and Ecuador. For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through late tonight, with seas building to 8 ft. These winds will then be at fresh speeds afterwards through the rest of the week. Winds will pulse moderate to fresh across the Gulf of Panama through the next few days. Over the remainder of area winds should remain tranquil for the next several days. Decaying northwest to north swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters today. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A 1009 mb low pressure system, a gale center, is located west of the area near 17N145W. This feature is associated with a persistent and broad mid to upper-level trough over the region and a rather vigorous large mid to upper-level low that is noted on water vapor imagery west of the area near 17N143W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh winds from 20N to 25N west of 130W. A large area of moderate rain, with embedded numerous showers and possible thunderstorms exists from 13N to 20N between 126W-136W and from 20N to 21N west of 136W. Northwest swell producing combined wave heights of 8-10 ft is over the area north of 10N and west of about 127W. The broad mid to upper-level trough is supporting a 1013 mb low near 10N115W. A decreasing area of scattered moderate convection is noted to the east of this low from 13N to 16N between 105W-107W. Seas in this area peaking up to about 7 ft, likely due to earlier locally strong wind gusts from showers and thunderstorms. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and mostly 4-6 ft seas are noted. East of 110W, combined seas are 5-7 ft due to a mix of northeast to east swell originating from the gap-wind events over the Tehuantepec and Papagayo regions that is mixing with longer period northwest and southeast swell. For the forecast, large swell will continue to propagate eastward across the northwest part of the basin, with seas ranging between 8-11 ft during the next few days. The surface trough in the vicinity of 120W will prevail across the area over the next few days with convection. A dissipating stationary front reaches the far northwest part of the area near 30N140W. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin through the end of the week. $$ Aguirre