000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231607 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jan 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building behind a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will continue to support a gap wind event with gale force winds to 35 kt in the Tehuantepec region today along with 12 ft seas. These conditions will start to diminish this evening. For more information on this event, see the latest East Pacific High Seas Forecast product. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 05N95W. The ITCZ extends from near 05N95W to 07N108W, then resumes W of a pair of troughs near 10N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within the troughs from 10N to 16N between 110W and 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Recent ship observations and an altimeter pass from 13 UTC showed gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas in Mexican offshore waters, outside of the Tehuantepec area. An upper trough farther west of the Pacific is supporting a few showers across the Revillagigedo Islands, but no other areas of showers or thunderstorms are evident. For the forecast, large NW swell will enter the waters off Baja California Norte Mon and Mon night. Gentle to moderate winds will persist, except for occasionally winds to 20 kt over the northern and central Gulf of California. The next strong cold front has the potential to reach the Gulf of Tehunatepec region by the end of the week with winds possibly reaching gale force. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic extending to the northern Caribbean continues to support a tight pressure gradient enhancing fresh to strong NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region with seas to 8 ft. Light to gentle variable winds with seas to 6 ft are elsewhere, except for moderate SW winds off the coast of Colombia and Ecuador. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through Mon with seas building to 8 ft. Winds will pulse moderate to fresh across the Gulf of Panama through early next week. Remainder of area, winds should remain tranquil for the next several days. Large NW to N swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters through tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA Deep low pressure is centered west of the area near 21N144W, assciated with a persistent and broad mid to upper level trough over the region. A cold front also associated with the upper trough is approaching 140W from the west, to the north of 25N. This pattern is support moderate to fresh winds from 20N to 25N west of 130W. NW swell with combinded wave heights of 8 to 11 ft are noted north of 20N and west of 135W. The broad mid to upper level trough is supporting a pair of surface troughs is noted over the deep tropics from 10N to 15N between 110W and 125W. Scattered shwoers and a few thunderstorms are noted near these troughs, as are NE winds to 20 kt and seas to 7 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and mostly 4 to 6 ft seas are noted. East of 110W, combined seas are 5 to 7 ft, in a mix of NE to E swell originating from the gap wind events over Tehuantepec and Papagayo, mixing with longer period NW and SE swell. For the forecast, the frontal boundary will stall W of the area. Large swell will continue moving E across the NW portion of the basin, with seas ranging between 8-11 ft during the next few days. The surface trough in the vicinity of 120W will prevail across the area over the next few days with convection. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin through the end of the week. $$ Christensen