000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222132
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jan 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building 
behind a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will continue to support
a gap wind event with gale force winds to 40 kt in the Tehuantepec
region. These conditions will continue through Sun night, allowing
for seas to build up to above 14 ft at times. For more information
on this event, see the latest East Pacific High Seas Forecast 
product.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends off the coast of Colombia from a 1009 mb
low pres near 09N75W to 05N93W. The ITCZ begins further W of the 
trough near 07N131W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection
continues south of the trough from 02N to 07N and E of 81W with
heavy shower activity near the coast of Cali, Colombia. Scattered
showers remain along and north of the ITCZ. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details 
on the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Scatterometer pass indicates light to moderate S to SW winds 
over the Gulf of California with lighter winds noted in the
entrance to the gulf extending to Puerto Magdalena in Baja 
California Sur. Seas ranged between 2 to 4 ft in the gulf and 3 
to 5 ft elsewhere off Baja California. Observations indicates 
the ongoing gale force wind event over the Tehuantepec region 
with seas building between 10 to 14 ft. Otherwise, light to 
gentle variable winds are elsewhere across the SW Mexican 
offshores with seas to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, gale-force winds will continue across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec through Sun night with seas building to 14 ft. 
A weak cold front will move into the northern Gulf of California
and off of Baja California Norte today. Fresh to strong winds 
can be expected in the northern Gulf today with seas to 4 ft. 
The front will stall and dissipate over Baja California Sur and 
the southern Gulf of California Sun morning. Light and gentle 
winds prevail through the end of the week. Another strong cold 
front has the potential to reach the Gulf of Tehunatepec region
by the end of the week with winds possibly reaching gale force. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic extending to the 
northern Caribbean continues to support a tight pressure gradient
enhancing fresh to strong NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo 
region with seas to 7 ft. Light to gentle variable winds with 
seas to 6 ft are elsewhere, except for moderate SW winds off the 
coast of Colombia and Ecuador. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse
across the Papagayo region through early next week with seas 
building to 9 ft over the weekend. Winds will pulse moderate to 
fresh across the Gulf of Panama through early next week. Remainder
of area, winds should remain tranquil for the next several days.
Large NW to N swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters tonight through Sun 
night. Strong cold front is forecast to move across the Gulf of 
Mexico and increase the chances for gale force winds to develop 
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late Fri into Sat.  

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1010 mb low is near 22N143W. Fresh to strong winds are noted 
north of the low. There is no convection associated with the low
in the area. This system is expected to continue moving westward
into hostile environmental conditions and development into a 
subtropical or tropical cyclone is not expected. A surface trough,
reflection of an upper-level low, extends from 14N126W to 18N128W.
This is enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms near two 
surface troughs analyzed E of the ITCZ. 

For the forecast, high pressure building N of the low pressure 
will continue to support a large area of fresh to strong E winds.
As the low moves west, it will substantially weaken. Winds and 
seas are expected to diminish into Sun. The surface trough in 
the vicinity of 127W will prevail across the area over the next 
few days with convection. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail 
across the basin through the end of the week. 

$$
Torres