000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221537 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jan 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure ridging building behind a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will continue to support a gap wind event with gale force winds to 40 kt in the Tehuantepec region. These conditions will continue through Sun night, allowing for seas to build up to above 14 ft at times. For more information on this event, see the latest East Pacific High Seas Forecast product. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends off the coast of Colombia from a 1009 mb low pres near 09N75W to 04N88W to 05N100W. The ITCZ begins further W of a trough near 10N118W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of the trough from 02N to 07N and E of 81W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ from 07N to 16N between 116W to 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The latest scatterometer pass shows light to moderate N to NW winds off the Baja peninsula and light to gentle winds along the Gulf of California with seas between 2 to 3 ft in the gulf and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere off Baja California. Observations also indicate the ongoing gale force wind event over the Tehuantepec region with seas building between 10 to 14 ft. Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere across the SW Mexican offshores with seas to 5 ft. For the forecast, gale-force winds will continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun night with seas building to 14 ft. A weak cold front will move into the northern Gulf of California and off of Baja California Norte today. Fresh to strong winds can be expected in the northern Gulf this morning with seas to 4 ft. The front will stall and dissipate over Baja California Sur and the southern Gulf of California Sun morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Strong high pressure over the W Atlantic extending to the northern Caribbean continue to support fresh to strong NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region with seas to 7 ft. Light to gentle variable winds with seas to 6 ft are elsewhere, except for moderate SW winds off the coast of Colombia and Ecuador. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through early next week with seas building to 9 ft over the weekend. Winds will pulse moderate to fresh across the Gulf of Panama through early next week. Elsewhere, winds should remain tranquil for the next several days. Large NW to N swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters tonight through Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A 1010 mb low is near 22N142W. Fresh to strong winds are noted north of the low in latest scatterometer data where seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range. There is no convection associated with the low in the area. This system is expected to continue moving westward into hostile environmental conditions and development into a subtropical or tropical cyclone is not expected. A surface trough, reflection of an upper-level low, extends from 14N126W to 18N128W. For the forecast, high pressure building N of the low pressure will continue to support a large area of fresh to strong E winds tonight. As the low moves west, it will substantially weaken. Winds and seas are expected to diminish by tomorrow morning. The surface trough in the vicinity of 133W will prevail across the area over the next few days with convection. $$ Torres