000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210846 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jan 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning for Pacific waters: An area of low pressure is located more than 1000 miles east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii near 23N138W. Gale-force winds prevail over the northern semicircle of the low through this morning, with seas ranging between 8 to 17 ft. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to decrease towards the morning. Environmental conditions appear to be only marginally favorable for additional development, and they are expected to become much less favorable on Friday. However, there is still a low chance for a short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone to form during the next day or so as the low moves northwestward to westward. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will continue moving through the western Gulf of Mexico today bringing gale-force winds over the Tehuantepec region through Sun night. Seas will reach as high as 12 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Sat. Winds and seas will diminish over the area through early next week. For more information on these events, see the latest East Pacific High Seas Forecast product. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N79W to 06N98W. The ITCZ continues from 06N98W to 07N112W, then resumes W of a trough near 08N120W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the trough from 04N-07N between 84W-87W, and from 08N-12N and W of 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Surface ridging prevails W of the Baja California, supporting fresh to strong winds off Baja California and its Gulf towards the morning. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere off Mexico with seas of 3 to 5 ft as indicated by recent altimeter data. For the forecast, the high pressure building W of the Baja peninsula will continue to support NW fresh to locally strong winds across the Gulf of California through this morning. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf of California and the waters off Baja California Norte on Sat, then stall and dissipate over Baja California Sur and the southern Gulf of California Sun into Mon. Winds and seas will be enhanced in the vicinity of the front. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR High pressure N of the area is supporting fresh to strong NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region extending to near 90W. Seas across that area are in the 5 to 6 ft range. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama region with seas to 5 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through the middle of next week. Elsewhere, winds should remain tranquil for the next several days. Large NW to N swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Sat night through Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA Please see Special Features for details about the Pacific Gale Warning. A large area of fresh to near gale force NE to E winds are N of 20N and W of 128W associated with the gale low pressure area described above. Seas in the area are raging between 8-17 ft. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere across the region. For the forecast, high pressure building N of the 1006 mb low pressure will continue to support a large area of fresh to strong E winds through today. By this afternoon, the low will move west 140W and weaken substantially. Winds and seas will subside as the low continues moving W away from the area while weakening. $$ ERA