000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jan 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale warning for Pacific waters: A well-defined area of low pressure producing gale-force winds is located more than 870 nmi east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii or near 22N136W. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues near the center along with seas of 8 to 16 ft. While environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for additional development, if this activity persists, it could result in the formation of a short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone over the next day or so. By Friday, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for additional development. There is a medium chance for this system to become a tropical/subtropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. Gale conditions are forecast to continue in the northern semicircle of the low through Fri morning when the low is expected to move just west of 140W. However, fresh to strong winds and seas will gradually diminish from 15N to 30N west of 130W through Sat. Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: A cold front moving through the western Gulf of Mexico today through Fri will bring gale-force winds over the Tehuantepec region Fri morning through Sun. Seas will reach as high as 12 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early Sat. Winds and seas will diminish over the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 05N94W to 07N127W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 111W and 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please see the Special Features section for details about the gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure west of the Baja California is building, supporting moderate to occasionally fresh winds off Baja California and Gulf of California. Light to gentle variable winds is elsewhere off Mexico with seas of 3 to 5 ft as indicated by recent altimeter data. For the forecast, high pressure building west of the Baja peninsula will support NW fresh to locally strong winds across the Gulf of California tonight. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf of California and the waters off Baja California Norte Sat, then stall and dissipate over Baja California Sur and the southern Gulf of California Sun into Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region extending to near 92W. Seas across that area are in the 5 to 6 ft range. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama region with seas to 6 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will prevail across the Papagayo region through the middle of next week. Elsewhere, winds should remain tranquil for the next several days. Large NW to N swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Sat night through Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA Please see Special Features for details about the Pacific gale warning. A large area of fresh to near gale force NE to E winds are N of 22N and W of 125W associated with a 1008 mb complex low pressure area centered near 22N136W, with seas of 8-16 ft. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are elsewhere across the region. For the forecast, high pressure building north of the 1008 mb low pressure will support a large area of fresh to strong E winds through Fri. By Fri morning, the low will move west 140W and weaken substantially. Seas should peak around 16 ft through tonight from 15N to 30N between 130W to 140W. $$ Ramos