000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201552 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jan 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale warning for Pacific waters: A vigorous mid-level low is centered near 23N138W, with a mid to upper trough with base reaching from the low to near 14N. Divergence to the east of the mid to upper trough base continues to support numerous moderate convection from 21N to 26N between 135W and 137W, and from 18N to 21N between 129W and 133W. The upper pattern is supporting a complex low with a mean center near 21N135W, with an estimated pressure around 1008 mb. Near gale to gale-force NE to E winds are within 255 nm NE quadrant of the low center with seas in the 11 to 14 ft range. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale- force late tonight/early Fri morning when the low is forecast to be near 24N138W. The low pressure will move west of 140W Fri morning, however associated winds and seas will diminish from 15N to 30N west of 130W through Sat. Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: A cold front moving through the western Gulf of Mexico today through Fri will bring gale- force winds over the Tehuantepec region Fri night through into Sun. Seas will reach as high as 11 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early Sat. Winds and seas will diminish over the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 05N85W to 05N97W, and from 08N115W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 13N between 125W and 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please see the Special Features section for details about the gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure west of the Baja California is building, supporting moderate to occasionally fresh winds off Baja California and Gulf of California, as shown in a 06 UTC scatterometer satellite pass. Gentle to moderate winds persist elsewhere off Mexico. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in open waters. For the forecast, high pressure building west of the Baja peninsula will support NW winds across the Gulf of California through tonight. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf of California and the waters off Baja California Norte Sat, then stall and dissipate over Baja California Sur and the southern Gulf of California Sun into Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR High pressure north of the area is supporting strong to near- gale NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region extending to near 90W. Seas across that area are in the 8 to 9 ft range. A recent scatterometer pass showed fresh to strong N winds over the Gulf of Panama, where seas are estimated to be 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will prevail across the Papagayo region through early next week. Elsewhere, winds should remain tranquil for the next several days. Large NW to N swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Sat night through Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA Please see Special Features for details about the Pacific gale warning. A large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds are within 300 nm north of a 1008 mb complex low pressure area centered near 21N133W, with seas of 8-10 ft. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted are elsewhere across the region. For the forecast, high pressure building north of the 1008 mb low pressure near 21N134W will support a large area of fresh to strong E winds through Fri, reaching minimal gale force within 300 nm north of the low as it moves to a position near 24N137W by early this afternoon. By early Fri, the low will move west 140W and weaken substantially. Seas should peak around 16 ft through tonight from 15N to 30N between 130W to 140W. $$ Ramos