000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200400 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jan 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale warning for Pacific waters: A vigorous mid to upper level low is centered near 25N140W, with an mid to upper trough reaching from the low to near 15N110W. Divergence aloft associated with the mid to upper trough is supporting a few clusters of showers and thunderstorms from 17N to 20N between 119W and 121W, and from 13N to 20N between 128W and 132W. The upper pattern is supporting a complex low with a mean center near 21N133W, with an estimated pressure around 1009 mb. The tightening gradient between the low and high pressure building north of area will allow for strong to near- gale force winds from 22N to 30N between 130W and 140W into early Fri, intensifying to gale- force winds near 25N135W by late Thu with seas building to 16 ft. The low pressure and associated gale force winds will move west of 140W Fri. Winds and seas will diminish from 15N to 30N west of 130W through Sat. Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: A cold front moving through the western Gulf of Mexico later this week will bring gale- force winds over the Tehuantepec region Fri night through into Sun. Winds and seas will diminish over the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week. Seas will reach as high as 11 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early Sat. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 07N90W. The ITCZ extends from 05N90W to 06N110W, and from 07N115W to 09N130W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 110W and 113W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please see the Special Features section for details about the gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure west of the Baja California is building, supporting moderate to occasionally fresh winds off Baja California and Gulf of California, as reported in recent ship observations. Gentle to moderate winds persist elsewhere off Mexico. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in open waters. For the forecast, high pressure will build west of the Baja peninsula through the weekend, producing fresh to strong NW winds across the Gulf of California Thu into Fri. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf of California and the waters off Baja California Norte Sat, then stall and dissipate over Baja California Sur and the southern Gulf of California Sun into Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR High pressure north of the area is supporting strong to near- gale NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region extending to near 90W. Seas across that area are in the 8 to 9 ft range. Fresh to strong N winds are present over the Gulf of Panama with seas 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will prevail across the Papagayo region through early next week. Fresh to strong N winds will continue through tonight over the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, winds should remain tranquil for the next several days. Large NW to N swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Sat and Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA Please see Special Features for details about the Pacific gale warning. A large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds are within 300 nm north of a 1009 mb complex low pressure area centered near 21N133W, with seas of 8-10 ft. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted are elsewhere across the region. For the forecast, low pressure will deepen over the next couple of days as it moves westward as high pressure builds north of the area. This pattern will support a large area of fresh to strong E winds through Fri, reaching minimal gale force within 300 nm north of the low as it moves to a position near 24N137W by early Thu afternoon. By early Fri, the low will move west 140W and weaken substantially. Seas should peak around 16 ft Thu and Thu night from 15N to 30N between 130W to 140W. $$ Christensen