000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191457
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jan 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1440 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale warning for Pacific waters: A vigorous mid to upper level 
low is centered near 26N138W, with an mid to upper trough 
reaching from the low to near 10N120W. Divergence aloft 
associated with the mid to upper trough is supporting scattered 
to numerous showers and thunderstorms from 10N to 24N between
109W and 133W. Squalls and locally rough seas are possible near 
the thunderstorms. The upper pattern is supporting a 1011 mb 
surface low pressure area near 15N136W. The low will deepen over 
the next couple of days, as high pressure builds farther north. 
The tightening gradient between the low and high pressure will 
allow for strong to near- gale force winds from 22N to 30N 
between 130W and 140W Wed into early Fri, intensifying to gale- 
force winds near 25N135W by late Thu with seas building to 16 ft.
The low pressure and associated gale force winds will move west 
of 140W Fri. Winds and seas will diminish from 15N to 30N west of
130W through Sat. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 05N87W. The ITCZ extends
from 05N87W to 06N105W to 11N127W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 01N to 06N between 78W and 81W. Scattered to 
numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is observed 
from 10N to 24N between 109W and 133W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A ridge of high pressure extends west of the Baja California
peninsula, with a weak pressure gradient across the area. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail west of the Baja California peninsula,
and over the southern portion of the Gulf of California. Moderate
to fresh gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to
gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range 
over the open waters off Mexico, with 1-3 ft seas over the Gulf 
of California. 

For the forecast, a cold front moving through the western Gulf 
of Mexico later this week will likely cause gale- force winds 
over the Tehuantepec region Fri night through Sun. High pressure 
will build west of the Baja peninsula through the weekend, 
producing fresh to strong NW winds across the Gulf of California 
starting on Thu and continuing through Sun night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting strong to near-
gale NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region extending to 
near 90W. Seas across that are 8 to 9 ft. Fresh to strong N 
winds are present over the Gulf of Panama with seas 5 to 7 ft. 
Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas in the 3 to 5 
ft range.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will prevail
across the Papagayo region through Sun night. Fresh to strong N
winds will continue through tonight over the Gulf of Panama.
Elsewhere, winds should remain tranquil for the next several
days. Large NW to N swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec will 
impact the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Sat and 
Sun.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Please see Special Features for details about the Pacific gale
warning.

A large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds are within 300 nm 
north of a 1011 mb low pressure area centered near 15N136W, with
seas of 8-9 ft. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft 
seas are noted are elsewhere across the region.

For the forecast, low pressure will deepen over the next couple
of days as it moves westward as high pressure builds north of 
the area. This pattern will support a large area of fresh to 
strong E winds through Fri, reaching minimal gale force within 
300 nm north of the low as it moves to a position near 24N137W by
early Thu afternoon. By early Fri, the low will move west 140W 
and weaken substantially. Seas should peak around 16 ft Thu and 
Thu night from 15N to 30N between 130W to 140W.

$$
AL