000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190843 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jan 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale warning Thu for Pacific waters near 25N135W: A vigorous mid to upper level low is centered near 26N138W, with an mid to upper trough reaching from the low to near 15N120W. Divergence aloft associated with the mid to upper trough is supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms from 10N to 16N between 125W and 131W, and scattered showers and thunderstorms from 14N to 17N between 115W and 119W. Squalls and locally rough seas are possible near the thunderstorms. The upper pattern is supporting the development of a 1011 mb surface low pressure area near 16N135W. The low will deepen over the next couple of days, just as high pressure builds farther north. The tightening gradient between the low and high pressure will allow for strong to near- gale force winds from 22N to 30N between 130W and 140W Wed into Thu, intensifying to gale- force winds near 25N135W by late Thu with seas building to 16 ft. The low pressure and associated gale force winds will move west of 140W Fri. Winds and seas will diminish from 15N to 30N west of 130W through Sat. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 06N87W to 11N128W to 07N140W. Scattered convection from 14N to 17N between 115W and 119W, and scattered to numerous convection is observed from 10N to 16N between 125W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A scatterometer satellite pass from around 0430 UTC along with recent ship observations confirmed gentle to moderate N to NE winds over Mexican offshore waters north of 20N. Fresh to strong winds near the coast over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are diminishing this morning. Gentle to moderate E winds elsewhere south of 20N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in most areas over open waters. The gentle to moderate winds are associated with weak high pressure over the waters north of 20N. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds near the coast over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are diminishing this morning. A cold front moving through the western Gulf of Mexico later this week will likely cause gale- force winds over the Tehuantepec region Fri night through Sun. High pressure will build west of the Baja peninsula through the weekend and should produce fresh to strong NW winds across the Gulf of California starting on Thu and continuing through Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR High pressure north of the area is supporting strong NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region extending to near 90W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated winds to 30 kt off Papagayo. Seas across that are 8 to 9 ft. Fresh N winds are present over the Gulf of Panama with seas 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will prevail across the Papagayo region through Sun night. Fresh to strong N winds will continue through tonight over the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, winds should remain tranquil for the next several days. Large NW to N swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec should affect the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Sat and Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA Please see Special Features for details about the Pacific gale warning. A recent scatterometer satellite pass from 06 UTC shows a large area of fresh NE winds within 300 nm north of a 1011 mb low pressure area centered near 16N135W. A concurrent altimeter satellite pass shows seas approaching 8 ft in this area. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted are elsewhere across the region. For the forecast, low pressure will deepen over the next couple of days as it moves westward, and as high pressure builds north of the area. This pattern will support a large area of fresh to strong E winds through Fri, reaching minimal gale force within 300 nm north of the low as it moves to a position near 24N137W by early Thu afternoon. By Thu night, the low will move west 140W and weaken substantially. Seas should peak around 16 ft Thu and Thu night from 15N to 30N between 130W to 140W. $$ Christensen