000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190308 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jan 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale warning Thu for Pacific waters near 25N135W: A vigorous mid to upper level low is centered near 26N138W, with an mid to upper trough reaching from the low to near 15N120W. Divergence aloft associated with the mid to upper trough is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms from 09N to 18N between 125W and 131W, and from 14N to 16N between 117W and 120W. Squalls and locally rough seas are possible near the thunderstorms. The upper pattern is supporting the development of a surface trough roughly along 130W between 15N and 20N. This will deepen into a surface low over the next couple of days, just as high pressure builds farther north. The tightening gradient between the low and high pressure will allow for strong to near- gale force winds from 22N to 30N between 130W and 140W Wed into Thu, intensifying to gale- force winds near 25N135W by late Thu with seas building to 14 ft. The low pressure and associated gale force winds will move west of 140W Fri. Winds and seas will diminish from 15N to 30N west of 130W through Sat. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 06N87W to 11N125W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 09N to 18N between 125W and 131W, and from 14N to 16N between 117W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Weak ridging north of 20N is supporting gentle to moderate winds off Baja California and the Gulf of California, as noted in recent ship observations and earlier scatterometer data. A small area of fresh to strong gap wind may be ongoing near the coast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, but gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere off southern Mexico. Seas are 4 to 6 ft seas in open waters off Mexico. For the forecast, the small area of fresh to strong N winds will continue to prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight then diminish. A Gulf of Mexico cold front will likely cause gale- force winds over the Tehuantepec region Fri night through Sun morning. High pressure will build modestly west of the Baja peninsula Wed through the weekend and should produce fresh to strong NW winds across the Gulf of California starting on Thu and continuing through Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Over the western Caribbean, a shear line extends from the Jamaica to Costa Rica. High pressure behind the shear line is supporting strong NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region extending to near 90W. Seas across that area have built to 8-9 ft. Fresh N winds are present over the Gulf of Panama with seas 5-7 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 3-5 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will prevail across the Papagayo region through Sun night. Fresh to strong N winds will continue through Wed night over the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, winds should remain tranquil for the next several days. Large NW to N swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec should affect the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Sat and Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA Please see Special Features for details about the Pacific gale warning. A recent scatterometer satellite pass shows a large area of fresh NE winds from 16N to 22N between 130W and 135W. A concurrent altimeter satellite pass shows seas approaching 8 ft in this area. These winds and seas are between a surface trough along roughly 130W and higher pressure building north of the area. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted are elsewhere across the region. For the forecast, low pressure will develop overnight near 15N135W. While the low is not likely to be frontal, the low may not develop enough organized deep convection and/or a well- defined low in order to be considered a subtropical cyclone. By Fri night, the low will move west 140W and weaken substantially. Seas should peak around 14 ft from Thu night to Fri from 15N to 30N between 130W to 140W. $$ Christensen