000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182051
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jan 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from NW Colombia near 07N78W to 06N84W.
The ITCZ extends from 06N84W to 10N115W to beyond 08N140W. No
significant deep convection is occurring in association with the
ITCZ.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A surface ridge extends from 30N121W southeastward to 20N107W. 
This morning's scatterometer winds indicated strong N winds in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the aftermath of a Gulf of Mexico cold
front. Peak seas in the Gulf are likely near 7 ft, but no 
altimeter passes or ships have reported in the area. Winds 
elsewhere are moderate or weaker. Seas are 5-7 ft in NW swell 
along the Mexican offshore zones and 1-2 ft in the Gulf of 
California.

Fresh to strong N winds will continue to prevail over the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec tonight. A new Gulf of Mexico cold front will 
likely cause gale-force winds over the Tehuantepec region Fri 
night through Sun morning. High pressure will build modestly west
of the Baja peninsula Wed through the weekend and should produce
fresh to strong NW winds across the Gulf of California starting 
on Thu and continuing through Sun night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

A shear line extends from the Greater Antilles to Nicaragua. 
High pressure behind the shear line is supporting strong NE to E
gap winds across the Papagayo region as seen by the morning
scatterometer pass and extends to near 90W. Seas across that 
area have built to 8-9 ft. Fresh N winds are present over the 
Gulf of Panama with seas 5-7 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or 
weaker and seas are 3-5 ft.

Fresh to near gale NE winds will prevail across the Papagayo 
region through the weekend. Fresh to strong N winds will continue
through Wed night over the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, winds 
should remain tranquil for the next several days. Large NW to N 
swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec should affect the Guatemala 
and El Salvador offshore waters Sat and Sun.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A relaxed N-S pressure gradient from high pressure north of our
waters to the ITCZ is producing gentle to fresh NE to E trades 
north of the ITCZ. South of the ITCZ, SE winds are moderate to 
fresh. A vigorous upper-level trough along 132W is inducing a 
surface trough from 10N130W to 16N130W with moderate convection 
occurring from 15-22N between 125W-132W. Seas are 6-8 ft across 
the basin in NW swell.

The surface trough should gradually pull northward for the next
two days while interacting with the upper-level trough. A broad
surface low is likely to develop on Thu. The combined impact of
the low forming along with building high pressure to the north
should lead toward a large area of strong to gale NE to E trades
on Thu and Fri. While the system is not likely to be frontal,
the low may not develop enough organized deep convection and/or 
a well-defined low in order to be considered a subtropical 
cyclone. By Fri night, the low may reach our W border along 140W 
and weaken substantially. Seas should peak around 15 ft from Thu 
night to Fri from 20N-30N between 130W-140W.

$$
Landsea