000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181600
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jan 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from NW Colombia near 07N78W to 06N84W.
The ITCZ extends from 06N84W to 10N113W to beyond 07N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N-10N between
113W-117W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A surface ridge extends from a 1021 mb high at 29N119W
southeastward to 17N103W. Overnight scatterometer winds 
indicated near-gale N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the 
aftermath of a Gulf of Mexico cold front. Peak seas in the Gulf 
are likely near 8 ft, but no altimeter passes or ships have 
reported in the area. Winds elsewhere are moderate or weaker.
Seas are 5-7 ft in NW swell along the Mexican offshore zones and
1-3 ft in the Gulf of California.

Fresh to strong N winds will prevail over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through tonight. A Gulf of Mexico cold front will 
likely force gale-force winds over the Tehuantepec region late 
Fri through early Sun. High pressure will build modestly across 
the Baja offshore waters Wed through the end of the week and 
should produce fresh to strong NW winds across the Gulf of 
California on Thu and Fri.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

A shear line extends from the Greater Antilles to Nicaragua. 
High pressure behind the front is supporting strong NE to E gap 
winds across the Papagayo region and extends to near 90W. Seas 
across that area have built to 8-9ft. Overnight scatterometer 
winds were fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama with seas 5-7 
ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 3-5 ft.

Fresh to near gale NE winds will prevail across the Papagayo 
region through the end of the week. Fresh to strong N winds will 
continue through Wed night over the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, 
winds should remain tranquil for the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A relaxed N-S pressure gradient from high pressure north of our
waters to the ITCZ is producing only gentle to moderate NE to E
trades north of the ITCZ. South of the ITCZ, SE winds are 
moderate to fresh. A vigorous upper-level trough along 135W is
inducing a surface trough from 10N130W to 16N130W with moderate
convection occurring from 15-21N between 120W-132W. Seas are 6-8
ft across the basin in NW swell.

The surface trough and weak low pressure across the NE waters 
will lift N and out of the area today, to briefly  maintain 
tranquil marine conditions. The new surface trough developing 
north of the ITCZ is expected to drift N-NE through late Wed, 
where a surface low is likely to develop in the vicinity of 
20N133W. This low is then expected to move N-NW through the end 
of the week. As this occurs, the pressure gradient between the 
low and high pressure to the N is expected to produce a zone of 
strong NE to E winds from 20N to 27N and building seas. There is 
good potential for winds to reach minimal gale force N of the low
by early Thu, with seas building 10 ft and higher.

$$
Landsea/Stripling