000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180929 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jan 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0820 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from NW Colombia near 09N74W to 03N81W. The ITCZ extends from 05N87W to 09.5N130W to beyond 07.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 360 nm NE of line from 07N118W to 17N139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Strong N to NE winds to near 30 kt, and seas of 7-9 ft prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and extend downwind to near 14.5N. A weak pressure gradient across the remainder of the area is supporting mainly light to gentle winds across the offshore waters from Baja California Norte to Puerto Angel. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range over the Gulf of California, and 5-7 ft over the remainder of the open waters off Mexico. Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue evening before diminishing moderate to fresh through Wed morning. Gale-force winds are possible over the Tehuantepec region once again late Fri. High pressure will build modestly across the Baja offshore waters Tue night through the remainder of the week to produce moderate winds across the Baja offshore waters. Moderate winds will also develop inside the Gulf of California Wed night and become moderate to fresh Thu. W-NW swell will continue to move through the waters offshore of Baja California through Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR A cold front has moved across the western Caribbean and reached SE Nicaragua tonight. High pressure behind the front is supporting strong NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region and extends to near 89W. Seas across that area have built to 6-8 ft. N-NE winds over the Gulf of Panama have become fresh and extend to near 05N, where seas are 4-6 ft. Light winds prevail north of a surface trough stretching across the Central American offshores with gentle winds south of it. Seas are 4-6 ft elsewhere outside of the Gulf of Papagayo, mainly due to S to SW swell. Fresh to strong gap winds will prevail across the Papagayo region through most of the week, and extend across much of the Nicaragua offshore waters. Northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh through Wed night. A surface trough will extend across the Central American offshores with light to gentle winds north of it and gentle winds south of it. REMAINDER OF THE AREA Subsiding west to northwest swell continues across the waters west of 90W, with seas in the 6-8 ft range. A broad surface trough extends from a 1016 mb surface low near 31.5N120W to 22N122W. Light to gentle winds are found within 250 nm either side of the trough. High pressure NW of the trough is supporting gentle to moderate NE winds W of the trough to 18N. An energetic N to S aligned upper level trough has moved E across 140W overnight and is creating unstable conditions across SW portions of the discussion area. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen in satellite imagery within 360 nm NE of a line from 07N118W to 17N139W. A broad surface trough has begun to develop in this area, N of the ITCZ to 17N and between 128W and 135W. Moderate to locally fresh E to NE tradewinds are occurring across this zone. The surface trough and weak low pressure across the NE waters will lift N and out of the area today, to briefly maintain tranquil marine conditions. The new surface trough developing north of the ITCZ is expected to drift N-NE through late Wed, where a surface low is likely to develop in the vicinity of 20N133W. This low is then expected to move N-NW through the end of the week. As this occurs, the pressure gradient between the low and high pressure to the N is expected to produce a zone of strong NE to E winds from 20N to 27N and building seas. There is good potential for winds to reach minimal gale force N of the low by early Thu, with seas building 10 ft and higher. $$ Stripling