552 AXPZ20 KNHC 171440 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jan 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1440 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 06N89W. The ITCZ continues from 06N89W to 08N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N east of 80W, from 08N to 11N between 120W and 130W, and from 11N to 20N W of 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec have diminished below gale force. Strong to near gale- force winds, with seas to 10 ft prevail. High pressure of 1018 mb is centered west of the Baja Peninsula near 26N117W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a surface trough over western Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf of California as well as west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the Gulf of California, and 5-7 ft over the remainder of the open waters off Mexico. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue. Gale- force winds are possible over the Tehuantepec region once again the end of the week. W-NW swell will continue to move through the waters offshore of Baja California through Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds are over the Gulf of Panama. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Papagayo region and 4-5 ft across the Gulf of Panama. Light winds prevail north of a surface trough stretching across the Central American offshores with gentle winds south of it. Seas are 3-5 ft outside of the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama, mainly due to S to SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail across the Papagayo region through most of the week. Northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh through Wed night. A surface trough will extend across the Central American offshores with light to gentle winds north of it and gentle winds south of it. REMAINDER OF THE AREA Moderate west to northwest swell continues to propagate through the regional waters reaching 90W. Seas are 6-8 ft, except for higher seas downwind of Tehuantepec. An elongated and deep- layered upper level low pressure system is centered near 35N124W and extends S-SW across the area waters and into the tropics to near 20N125W. This feature has persisted across the region for the past few days and has induced a broad inverted surface trough extending from a 1015 mb surface low near 30N127W to 22N126W. Light to gentle winds are found within 250 nm either side of the trough. High pressure NW of the trough is supporting gentle to moderate N to NE winds W of the trough to 10N. The upper-level low is forecast to lift northward and weaken through today. Expect mostly gentle north to northeast winds to persist west of the surface trough as it drifts westward and weakens. The W-NW swell will gradually decay today. The surface trough is forecast to drift W through Wed, with weak low pressure just N of the area. This will maintain a weak pressure gradient across the regional waters and fairly tranquil marine conditions. Looking ahead, a new surface trough is expected to develop north of the ITCZ near 130W-132W by Tue and drift northward through mid week. Increasing winds and seas will be seen near the trough and north of 18N during this time as the pressure gradient increases. There is a potential for winds to reach minimal gale force by early Thu from 20N to 25N with seas 10 ft and higher. $$ AL