000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140921 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jan 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N74W southwestward to 02.5N80W TO 02.5N82.5W. The ITCZ extends from 02.5N82.5W to 10N120W, then resumes from 08N133W to beyond 05N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05.5N to 07.5N between 98W and 112W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO High pressure centered well N of the region is supporting a weak pressure gradient across the Baja California offshore waters tonight. Recent satellite derived scatterometer winds showed light N winds prevailing north of 20N. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in W to NW swell, except 7-8 ft offshore of Baja Sur to near Cabo Corrientes. Fresh to locally strong NW winds prevail over the central and southern Gulf of California, with light to gentle winds across northern portions of the Gulf. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail across central portions and 5-7 ft across southern portions. Light to gentle winds elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, except for moderate north to northwest winds from offshore of Las Tres Marias to Cabo Corrientes. High pressure over eastern Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico continue to promote strong winds across the Tehuantepec region, extending downwind to near 14.4N. Seas there are 7-9 ft. An area of 7-8 ft seas in mixed NW and NE swell that was generated by previously gale force winds in the Tehuantepec region has propagated well southwest-west of the offshore waters and extends to beyond 110W. Gap winds will in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will increase to around 30 kt tonight then gradually diminish Fri before shutting down late Fri afternoon. A gale-force gap wind event is expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Sun through Sun night. Fresh to strong northerly winds in the central and southern Gulf of California will diminish slightly to moderate to fresh Fri afternoon through evening. Fresh northerly winds area expected in the northern Gulf of California Sat and spreading southward across the remainder of the Gulf through early Sun before gradually diminishing. West-northwest swell will continue to propagate southeastward across the offshore waters of Baja California through Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico is supporting fresh northeast to east gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas there are in the 4-6 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere north of 04N, except moderate to locally fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama to 05N. Seas are 3-5 ft outside of the Gulf of Papagayo region, mainly due to S to SW swell. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region through early Sat, then again Sun night through Tue night. Seas will build slightly in the Gulf of Papagayo region early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will be present elsewhere north of 04N, pulsing to fresh in the Gulf of Panama through Sat. Light to gentle winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA Large W-NW swell is propagating through the western part of the area west of a line from 30N122W to 06N140W, where seas are 8 to 10 ft, except for an area of 11-12 ft seas near 17N139W occurring in a small area of fresh easterly winds. Seas elsewhere are in the 8-9 ft west of 120W. An elongated and deep layered upper level low pressure system has become stationary between 122W and 135W from 18N to 32N, where a surface trough persists from 23N125W to 17N127W to 11N131W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 300 nm E of this trough from 15N to 23N. Abundant tropical moisture is being advected northward on the eastern side of the deep layered low, between 118W and 124W, and reaching just beyond 30N. The pressure gradient between this surface trough and high pressure well to the N is promoting moderate to locally fresh NE winds to the N and W of the trough. Gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail elsewhere N of the ITCZ to 17N and W of 110W, except NE winds W of 130W. The W-NW swell is forecast to gradually decay over the upcoming weekend. The trough is forecast to dampen out through Sun as it lifts northward. Otherwise, fairly tranquil marine conditions are forecast across the waters this weekend as the pressure gradient remains weak to moderate and regional seas are dominated by the decaying northwest swell. $$ Stripling