000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140338 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jan 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N74W southwestward to 02.5N82W. The ITCZ extends from 03.5N84W to 08N118W, then resumes from 07N135W to beyond 05N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 07N between 95W and 111W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO High pressure centered well N of the region is supporting a weak pressure gradient across the Baja California offshore waters tonight, where light to gentle N to NE winds prevail. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in W to NW swell, with highest seas offshore of Baja Sur to near Las Tres Marias. Fresh to locally strong NW winds prevail over the southern Gulf of California, with moderate to fresh winds across central portions of the Gulf. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail across central portions and 5-6 ft across southern portions. Light to gentle winds elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, except for moderate northwest to north winds from offshore of Las Tres Marias to Cabo Corrientes. Seas of 6-8 ft in northwest swell also prevail there. High pressure over eastern Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico continues to promote strong winds across the Tehuantepec region, extending downwind to near 14N. Seas there are 7-8 ft. An Area of 8-9 ft seas in mixed NW and NE swell that was generated by previously gale force winds in the Tehuantepec region has propagated well southwest- west of the offshore waters to 113W. Gap winds will in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will increase to near gale-force tonight through early Fri. A gale-force gap wind event is possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun and Sun night. Fresh to strong northerly winds in the central and southern Gulf of California will prevail through Fri, with similar conditions forecast in the northern Gulf of California Sat. West-northwest swell will continue to propagate southeastward across the offshore waters of Baja California through Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas there are in the 4-6 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere north of 04N, except moderate to locally fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama to 04N. Seas are 3-5 ft outside of the Gulf of Papagayo region, mainly due to S to SW swell. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region through early Sat, then again Sun night through Tue night. Seas will build slightly in the Gulf of Papagayo region early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will be present elsewhere north of 04N, pulsing to fresh in the Gulf of Panama through Sat. Light to gentle winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA Large W-NW swell is propagating through the western part of the area west of a line from 30N122W to 20N125W to 05N140W, where seas are 8 to 10 ft, except for an area of 11-12 ft seas near 18N138W occurring in a small area of fresh easterly winds. Seas elsewhere are in the 8-9 ft west of 120W. An elongated and deep layered upper level low pressure system has become stationary between 122W and 130W from 18N to 32N, where a surface trough persists from 23N127W to 18N126W to 10N130W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 180 nm E of this trough from 16N to 22N. Abundant tropical moisture is being advected northward on the eastern side of the deep layered low, between 118W and 124W, and reaching just beyond 30N. The pressure gradient between this surface trough and high pressure well to the N is promoting moderate to locally fresh NE winds to the N and W of the trough. Gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail elsewhere N of the ITCZ to 15N and W of 110W, except NE winds W of 130W. For the forecast, the W-NW swell is forecast to gradually decay over the upcoming weekend. The trough is forecast to dampen out Sat. Weak low pressure is expected to develop over the far north- central waters Sat, with troughing to extend from it south- southwest to near 15N126W. Otherwise, fairly tranquil marine conditions are forecast across the waters this weekend as the pressure gradient continues to slacken in addition to the northwest swell decaying. $$ Stripling