000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140033 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0033 UTC Fri Jan 14 2022 Updated Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0015 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends northern Colombia near 10N75W southwestward to 03N83W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 06N99W to 07N105W to 09N118W, where it pauses It resumes at 06N135W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 94W-99W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Updated The pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec region is supporting fresh to strong north to northeast winds per the latest ASCAT pass. Seas there are 8-9 ft. An Area of 8-9 ft northeast swell that was generated by previously gale force winds in the Tehuantepec region has propagated well southwest- west of the offshore waters. Fresh to strong northwest winds are over the central and southern Gulf of California, with moderate northwest winds in the northern Gulf of California. Seas of 3-5 ft are noted across the Gulf of California. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail across the waters west of the Baja California peninsula, with light to gentle winds elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, except for moderate northwest to north winds near Cabo Corrientes. Seas of 6-8 ft in northwest swell prevail west of Baja California, and 3-6 ft elsewhere. Fresh to strong winds near Cabo Corrientes are diminishing. For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds will in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will increase to near gale-force tonight through early Fri. A gale-force gap wind event is possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun and Sun night. Fresh to strong northerly winds in the central and southern Gulf of California will prevail through Fri, with similar conditions forecast in the northern Gulf of California Sat. West-northwest swell will propagate southeastward across the waters offshore of Baja California through Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas there are in the 4-6 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, except moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 3-5 ft outside of the Gulf of Papagayo region, mainly due to a south to southwest swell. For the forecast, high pressure located north of the area will support fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region through early Sat, then again Sun night through Tue night. Seas will build slightly in the Gulf of Papagayo region early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will be present elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, pulsing to fresh in the Gulf of Panama through Sat. Light to gentle winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A large set of northwest swell is propagating through the western part of the area west of a line from 30N117W to 17N117W and to 04N140W, with seas peaking to 11 ft. Seas elsewhere are in the 8-10 ft west of a line from 30N130W to 21N132W to 10N140W. A large trough is over the central open waters from 23N123W to 15N126W and to near 07N133W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is seen along and within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 94W-97W and between 104W-109W. Moderate to fresh trades, locally strong in the west-central waters, are noted elsewhere north of the ITCZ to 26N and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas of 5- 7 ft prevail elsewhere across the open waters. Abundant moisture is being advected northward by strong upper winds from the deep tropics toward the northern part of the Baja California peninsula and California enhancing convection over the waters north of 13N between 118W-126W. For the forecast, the aforementioned set of northwest swell is forecast to gradually decay over the upcoming weekend. The trough is forecast to dampen out Sat. Weak low pressure is expected to develop over the far north-central waters Sat, with troughing to extend from it south-southwest to near 15N126W. Otherwise, fairly tranquil marine conditions are forecast across the waters this weekend as the pressure gradient continues to slacken in addition to the northwest swell decaying. $$ Aguirre