000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130754
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jan 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 1012 mb low pressure over northern
Colombia near 11N74W to 03N83W. The ITCZ continues from 03N83W to
08N112W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N 
between 107W and 113W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

The pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec region is supporting
fresh to near gale force northerly winds along with seas of 8 to
10 ft. An area of 8 to 9 ft NE swell that was generated by 
previously gale force winds in the Tehuantepec region has 
propagated well southwest-west to just beyond the offshore 
waters. Fresh to strong NW winds are blowing over the central 
and southern Gulf of California, with moderate NW winds in the
northern Gulf of California. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted across 
the Gulf of California. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail 
across the waters west of the Baja California peninsula, with 
light to gentle winds elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, 
except moderate to fresh near Cabo Corrientes. Seas of 6 to 8 ft
in NW Swell prevail west of Baja California, and 3 to 6 ft 
elsewhere. Fresh to strong winds near Cabo Corrientes are
diminishing. Abundant moisture is being advected northward from 
the deep tropics toward the Baja California peninsula enhancing 
convection across the waters from Cabo Corrientes northward. 

For the forecast, near gale force winds will persist across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri. A gale force gap wind 
event is possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun and Sun night. 
Fresh to strong northerly winds in the central and southern Gulf 
of California will prevail through Fri, with similar conditions 
forecast in the northern Gulf of California Sat. NW swell will 
propagate southeast across the waters offshore of Baja California
through early today.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong 
northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas
there are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are 
noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, except moderate to
fresh in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to moderate winds are south 
of the monsoon trough. Seas are 3 to 5 ft outside of the Gulf of 
Papagayo region, mainly due to a south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the area will 
support fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of 
Papagayo region through Sat, then again Sun night through Mon 
night. Gentle to moderate winds will be present elsewhere north 
of the monsoon trough, pulsing to fresh in the Gulf of Panama 
through Sat. Light to gentle winds will prevail south of the 
monsoon trough. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A stationary front that was over the far NW waters has dissipated
in the past few hours. Even so, the front has managed ushered in
a fresh set of NW swell, with seas to 12 ft near 30N140W. 
Subsiding NW swell, with seas of 8 to 10 ft, is across the 
waters north of about 05N and west of 115W. A surface trough is 
analyzed in the central open waters from 23N120W to 15N124W to
05N132W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted in 
the vicinity and to the northeast of the trough. Moderate to 
fresh trades, locally strong in the west-central waters, are 
noted elsewhere north of the ITCZ to 26N and west of 120W, with 
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail 
elsewhere across the open waters.

For the forecast, the set of NW swell is forecast to continue to 
spread across the NW waters early today, lingering into the 
upcoming weekend. The trough will dissipate by the end of the 
week. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are forecast across the 
waters this weekend as the pressure gradient slackens allowing 
for trades to diminish and as the NW swell gradually decays.

$$
Lewitsky