000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130116
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jan 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 10N75W to 04N82W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N82W to 06N103W to 09N118W, then resumes
southwest of a surface trough from 06N134W to 04N140W. No 
significant convection is noted with the surface trough and ITCZ.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

The pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec region has loosened
enough to diminish winds below gale force across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Strong to near gale winds, and seas of 8 to 10 ft 
now prevail across the Tehuantepec region. The fresh to strong 
winds over the central and southern Gulf of California have 
diminished slightly. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 3 to 5
ft are noted across the Gulf of California. Gentle to locally 
moderate winds prevail across the waters west of the Baja 
California peninsula, with light to gentle winds elsewhere over 
the open waters off Mexico, except moderate to fresh near Cabo
Corrientes. Seas of 6 to 9 ft in NW Swell prevail west of Baja 
California, and 3 to 6 ft elsewhere. Abundant moisture is being 
advected northward from the deep tropics toward the Baja 
California peninsula enhancing convection across the waters from 
Cabo Corrientes northward. 

For the forecast, near gale force winds will persist across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri. A gale force gap wind 
event is possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun and Sun night, 
and then again Mon night. Fresh to strong northerly winds in the 
central and southern Gulf of California will return tonight 
through Fri, with similar conditions forecast in the northern 
Gulf of California Sat. NW swell will propagate southeast across 
the waters offshore of Baja California through Thu. Fresh to 
strong north winds are expected near Cabo Corrientes tonight into
early Thu. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong 
northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas
there are in the 4 to 6 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are 
noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, except moderate to
fresh in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to moderate winds are south 
of the monsoon trough. Seas are 3 to 5 ft outside of the Gulf of 
Papagayo region, mainly due to a south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the area will 
support fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of 
Papagayo region through Sat, then again Sun night through Mon 
night. Seas generated in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will subside 
this evening. Gentle to moderate winds will be present elsewhere 
north of the monsoon trough, pulsing to fresh in the Gulf of 
Panama through Sat. Light to gentle winds will prevail south of 
the monsoon trough. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A dissipating stationary front extends across the NW waters from
30N135W to 27N140W. The front has ushered in a fresh set of NW 
swell, with seas to 12 ft near 30N140W. Subsiding NW swell, with 
seas of 8 to 11 ft, is across the waters north of about 05N and 
west of 115W. A surface trough is analyzed in the central open 
waters from 20N124W to 09N128W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted in the vicinity and to the east of 
the trough. Nearby winds have diminished to moderate to fresh in 
the past few hours while seas of 8 to 10 ft in the NW swell 
surround the area. Moderate to fresh trades, are noted elsewhere 
north of the ITCZ to 26N and west of 120W, with gentle to 
moderate winds elsewhere. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere 
across the open waters.

For the forecast, the set of NW swell is forecast to continue to 
spread across the NW waters tonight. The front is forecast to 
weaken rapidly tonight through the end of the week, while the 
associated NW swell lingers into the upcoming weekend. The 
trough will dissipate by the end of the week. Fairly tranquil 
marine conditions are forecast across the waters this weekend as 
the pressure gradient slackens allowing for trades to diminish 
and as the NW swell gradually decays.

$$
Lewitsky