000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121839 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jan 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 04N82W. The ITCZ continues from 04N82W to 04N100W to 06N111W, then resumes from 08N132W to 05N140W. No significant convection is noted with the monsoon trough and ITCZ. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO The pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec region has loosened enough to diminish winds below gale force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong to near gale winds, and seas of 8-11 ft now prevail across the Tehuantepec region. The fresh to strong winds over the central and southern Gulf of California have diminished slightly this afternoon. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 3-5 ft are noted across the Gulf of California. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail across the waters west of the Baja California peninsula, with light to gentle winds elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail west of Baja California, and 4-5 ft elsewhere. Abundant moisture is being advected northward from the deep tropics toward the Baja California peninsula enhancing convection across the waters from Cabo Corrientes northward. For the forecast, near gale force winds will persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri. A gale force gap wind event is possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun and Sun night. Fresh to strong northerly winds in the central and southern Gulf of California will diminish by tonight, then return Thu through Fri. NW swell will propagate southeast across the waters offshore of Baja California through Thu. Fresh to strong north winds are expected near Cabo Corrientes tonight into early Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas there are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 3 to 5 ft outside of the Gulf of Papagayo region, mainly due to a south to southwest swell. For the forecast, high pressure located north of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sat, then again Sun night. Seas generated in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will subside by this evening. Gentle to moderate winds will be present elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, pulsing to fresh in the Gulf of Panama through Sat. Light to gentle winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A cold front extends across the NW waters from 30N138W to 28N140W. The front has ushered in a fresh set of NW swell, with seas to 12 ft near 30N140W. Otherwise, high is pressure located north of the area near with ridging prevailing across the remainder of the waters north of the ITCZ and west of about 125W. Subsiding NW swell, with seas of 8 to 11 ft, is across the waters north of about 06N and west of 120W. A pair of surface troughs are analyzed in the central open waters with an eastern trough from 20N115W to 13N114W, and a western trough from 21N119W TO 09N127W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted in the vicinity of the troughs. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are noted from 17N to 22N between 115W and 120W. Moderate to fresh trades, locally strong near 10N139W, are noted elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere across the open waters. For the forecast, the set of NW swell is forecast to spread across the NW waters today. The cold front is forecast to weaken rapidly today through the end of the week, while the associated NW swell lingers into the upcoming weekend. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the northern forecast waters and the surface troughs will maintain fresh to strong winds and seas around 8 ft over the waters near the trough. The troughs will merge while lifting northward through Thu before dissipating by the end of the week. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are forecast across the waters this weekend as the pressure gradient slackens allowing for trades to diminish and as the NW swell gradually decays. $$ AL