000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112023
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
2205 UTC Tue Jan 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between  
high pressure across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre 
Mountains in Mexico and the equatorial trough is supporting gale 
force gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are peaking
around 40 kt, with seas building to around 16 ft. Gale conditions
are forecast to persist through Wed morning with the potential 
for another round of gales Thu night. A swath of fresh to strong 
NE to E winds with seas of 8 ft or greater, generated by this gap
wind event, will propagate well to the SW of the Tehuantepec 
region reaching beyond 105W today. Please read the latest NWS 
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 05N89W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N89W to 08N117W, then resumes west of a surface
trough from 08N124W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03N to 06N between 82W and 99W, and N of 07N between 
112W and 122W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please
see the Special Features section above for more details.

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds and 
seas of 3 to 5 ft. Fresh to strong NW to N winds prevail in the 
Gulf of California. Some of these winds are filtering through 
Baja California Peninsula passages into the adjacent waters west
of Baja California. Seas in the Gulf of California are in the 4 
to 7 ft range. Elsewhere across the offshore forecast waters of 
Mexico, light to gentle winds prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, gale force will persist across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec through Wed morning, then return on Thu night. Fresh
to strong northerly winds will prevail across the Gulf of 
California. The fresh to strong winds will become confined to the
central and southern Gulf by mid-week, then diminish throughout 
by the end of the week. NW swell will reach the waters north of 
Punta Eugenia tonight through mid-week. Fresh to strong north 
winds are expected near Cabo Corrientes Wed night into early Thu.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong 
northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas
there are in the 6 to 8 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are 
noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, except moderate to 
fresh in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are south of 
the monsoon trough. Seas are 3 to 5 ft outside of the Gulf of 
Papagayo region, mainly due to a south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the area will 
support fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of 
Papagayo region through Sat night. Seas generated in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec are forecast to propagate across the offshore waters 
of Guatemala and El Salvador through Wed, building seas to 8 to 
12 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will be present elsewhere north 
of the monsoon trough, pulsing to fresh in the Gulf of Panama. 
Light to gentle winds will prevail south of the trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1030 mb is located north of the area near 
35N127W with ridging prevailing across the waters north of 20N. 
NW swell with seas of 8 to 11 ft is across the waters north of 
10N and west of 120W, with the highest seas near 28N129W. Light 
to gentle winds prevail north of 27N between 127W and 134W under 
the ridging, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere north of 
26N. A surface trough extends from 19N115W to 12N120W. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and the trough is supporting 
an area of strong to near-gale winds and seas ranging from 8 to 
10 ft east of the trough. Moderate to fresh trades prevail 
elsewhere north of the ITCZ to 26N. Mainly gentle to moderate SE 
winds are noted south of the ITCZ. Seas of 5 to 7 ft, locally to 
8 ft, in NW swell are across the remainder of the open waters.

For the forecast, the set of NW swell will continue to propagate
southeast through the evening hours. Another set of large NW 
swell is forecast to reach the NW waters tonight and Wed. The 
pressure gradient between high pressure over the northern 
forecast waters and the surface trough will maintain fresh to 
strong winds and seas near 8 ft over the waters near the trough. 
The trough will lift northward through mid-week before dissipating
by the end of the week. A cold front is expected to approach the
far northwest corner of the area tonight. This front is forecast
to be preceded by fresh to strong south to southwest winds, and 
followed by a large set of northwest swell. The front will weaken
rapidly once it pushes southeast of 30N140W on Wed through the 
end of the week while the associated NW swell lingers into the 
upcoming weekend.

$$
ERA