000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110203
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jan 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
building high pressure across the eastern slopes of the Sierra 
Madre Mountains in Mexico and the equatorial trough is supporting
gale force gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are 
forecast to peak around 40 kt tonight and again Tue night, with 
seas building to around 15 to 17 ft. Gale conditions are 
forecast to persist through early Wed, with the potential for
another round Thu night. A swath of fresh to strong NE to E 
winds with seas of 8 ft or greater, generated by this gap wind 
event, will propagate well to the SW of the Tehuantepec region 
reaching beyond 100W on Tue. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N74W to 06N89W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N89W to 04N97W to 09N114W, then resumes west of
a surface trough from 09N124W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate 
and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 18N between 
104W and 112W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to
16N between 116W and 120W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please
see the Special Features section above for more details.

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas of 4 
to 6 ft. Fresh to strong NW to N winds prevail in the Gulf of 
California. Some of these winds are filtering through Baja 
California Peninsula passages into the waters west of Baja 
California Sur. Seas in the Gulf of California are in the 4 to 7 
ft range. Elsewhere across the offshore forecast waters of 
Mexico, light to gentle winds prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, gale force will persist across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec through Wed morning, diminish through mid-week, then
possibly return Thu night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will 
prevail across the Gulf of California. The fresh to strong winds 
will become confined to the central and southern Gulf by mid- 
week, then diminish by the end of the week. NW swell will reach 
the waters north of Punta Eugenia Tue night through mid-week. 
Fresh to strong north winds are expected near Cabo Corrientes Wed
night into early Thu. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong 
northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas
there are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are 
noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, except moderate to 
fresh in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are south of 
the monsoon trough. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, mainly due to a south to 
southwest swell.

For the forecast, high pressure located N of the area will 
support fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of 
Papagayo region through Sat night. Seas generated in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec are forecast to propagate across the offshore waters 
of Guatemala and El Salvador on Tue through Wed, building seas to
8 to 12 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will be present elsewhere 
north of the monsoon trough, pulsing to fresh in the Gulf of 
Panama. Light to gentle winds will prevail south of the trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1028 mb is located north of the area near
34N126W with a ridge extending southeast from 30N127W to 
17N110W, and to the southwest from 30N127W to 27N140W. NW swell 
with seas of 8 to 13 ft is over the NW waters, mainly north of 
about 13N and west of 128W, the highest near 30N140W. Light to 
gentle winds prevail north of 27N between 125W and 135W under the
ridging, with moderate to locally fresh winds elsewhere north of
20N, along with 4 to 7 ft seas. A surface trough extends from
14N116W to 08N121W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and 
the trough is supporting an area of fresh to strong winds and 
seas of around 8 ft northeast of the trough. Mainly gentle to 
moderate E to SE winds are noted south of the ITCZ. Seas of 5 to 
7 ft, locally to 8 ft, in NW swell are across the remainder of 
the open waters.

For the forecast, the set of NW swell will continue to propagate
southeast, peaking near 13 to 14 ft through tonight, with the 
leading edge of seas of 8 ft or greater reaching to near 125W by
early Tue. Another set of large NW swell is forecast to reach 
the NW waters Tue night and Wed. The pressure gradient between 
high pressure over the northern forecast waters and the surface 
trough will maintain fresh to strong winds and seas near 8 ft 
over the waters near the trough. The trough will elongate from 
north to south while lifting northward through mid-week before 
dissipating by the end of the week. A cold front is expected to 
approach the far northwest corner of the area late on Tue. This 
front is forecast to be preceded by fresh to strong south to 
southwest winds, and followed by a large set of northwest swell. 
The front will weaken rapidly once it pushes southeast of 30N140W
Wed through the end of the week while the associated NW swell 
lingers into the upcoming weekend.

$$
Lewitsky