000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102021 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jan 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between building high pressure across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico and the equatorial trough is supporting gale force gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are forecast to peak around 40 kt tonight and again Tue night, with seas building to around 15 ft. Gale conditions are forecast to persist through Thu night with the potential for a brief lull below gale force Wed afternoon and early evening. A swath of fresh to strong NE to E winds with seas of 8 ft or greater, generated by this gap wind event, will propagate well to the SW of the Tehuantepec region reaching beyond 100W on Tue. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 06N92W. The ITCZ continues from 06N91W to 08N119W. It resumes from 08N128W to 09N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 106W and 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to strong NW to N winds prevail in the Gulf of California. Some of these winds are filtering through Baja California Peninsula passages into the waters west of Baja California Sur. Seas in the Gulf of California are in the 4-6 ft range. Elsewhere across the offshore forecast waters of Mexico, light to gentle winds prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will persist through Thu night, with a brief lull possible Wed afternoon and evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail across the Gulf of California. The fresh to strong winds will become confined to the central and southern Gulf by mid- week, then diminish by the end of the week. NW swell will reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia late on Tue through mid- week. Fresh to strong north winds are expected near Cabo Corrientes Wed night into early Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas there are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, except moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, mainly due to a south to southwest swell. For the forecast, high pressure located N of the area will support continued pulsing fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region likely through Fri. Seas generated in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are forecast to propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador on Tue through Wed, building seas to 8 to 11 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will be present elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, pulsing to fresh in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds will prevail south of the trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA High pressure of 1030 mb is located near 36N123W with a ridge extending to the southeast and southwest. NW swell with seas of 8 to 12 ft is over the NW waters. Light to gentle winds dominate the waters north of about 24N, with seas of 4 to 7 ft. A surface trough extends from 15N120W to 07N125W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the trough is supporting an area of fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft NE of the trough. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ to 22N. Mainly gentle to moderate SE winds are noted south of the ITCZ. Seas of 5 to 7 ft, locally to 8 ft, in NW swell are across the waters south of 22N. For the forecast, the set of NW swell will continue to propagate southeast, peaking near 13 to 14 ft through tonight, with the leading edge of seas of 8 ft or greater reaching to near 125W by early Tue. Another set of large NW swell is forecast to reach the NW waters Tue night and Wed. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the northern forecast waters and the surface trough will maintain fresh to strong winds and seas near 8 ft over the waters near the trough. The trough will elongate from north to south while lifting northward through mid- week before dissipating by the end of the week. A cold front is expected to approach the far northwest corner of the area late on Tue. This front is forecast to be preceded by fresh to strong south to southwest winds, and followed by a large set of northwest swell. The front will weaken rapidly once it pushes southeast of 30N140W Wed through the end of the week while the associated NW swell lingers into the upcoming weekend. $$ AL