000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092114
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jan 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A building ridge across the
eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico will
support the next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region. 
Strong winds will begin to funnel through the Chivela Pass late 
tonight, increasing to gale force by Mon afternoon. Winds are 
forecast to peak around 40 kt by Mon night, with seas building to
up to 16-18 ft. Gale conditions are forecast to likely persist 
through Thu night. A swath of fresh to strong NE to E winds with
seas of 8 ft or greater, generated by this gap wind event, will 
propagate well to the SW of the Tehuantepec region reaching 
beyond 100W on Tue. Please read the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 05N98W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N98W to 09N120W to 1013 mb low pressure near 09N131W to 
beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 09N to
14N between 110W and 117W. This convective activity is associated
with a surface trough located within the ITCZ along 114W/115W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please
see the Special Features section above for more details.

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing mainly light to gentle NW to N winds with seas of 3-5
ft. Gentle to moderate NW winds are seen on scatterometer data 
in the Gulf of California where seas are in the 1-2 ft range.
Elsewhere across the offshore forecast waters of Mexico, light 
to gentle winds prevail with seas of 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California through the next several days.
The next northwest swell event will reach the waters north of 
Punta Eugenia late on Tue, building seas to 8-10 ft. Strong high 
pressure over the southwestern United States will bring an 
increase in winds and seas across most of the Gulf of California 
beginning tonight. Expect fresh to strong NW winds and building 
seas of 5-7 ft. These marine conditions will spread southward 
beyond the entrance to the Gulf of California, and likely persist
through Tue. Fresh to strong north winds are expected near Cabo 
Corrientes Wed night into early Thu.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh
northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region.
Seas there are in the 6-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are
noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, while light to 
gentle winds are south of the trough. Seas are 3-5 ft due to a 
south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will support 
the fresh to strong NE to E east gap winds over the Gulf of 
Papagayo region likely through Fri. Seas generated in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec are forecast to propagate across the offshore waters
of Guatemala and El Salvador on Tue and Tue night, building seas
to 8-12 ft. Little change is expected with winds north and south
of the monsoon trough for the next few days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A ridge covers the forecast waters north of about 16N and E of 
130W. A cold front is moving across the NW corner of the forecast
region and extends from 30N133W to 25N140W. Another set of large
and long period NW swell follows the front. Seas are in the 5-7 
ft range across most of the area, except W of the front where 
seas of 8-12 ft are observed.

For the forecast, the above mentioned cold front will dissipate 
on Mon. A new set of long-period northwest swell will follow the 
front building seas up to 13-14 ft through late Mon. This swell 
event will propagate across much of the forecast waters W of 115W
through at least Wed when another set of large and long period 
NW swell is forecast to reach the NW waters. The pressure 
gradient between high pressure over the northern forecast waters 
and a surface trough in the tropical region that is now analyzed 
near 122W is expected to lead to increasing winds and seas across
the waters from 13N to 17N between 118W and 130W from tonight 
through Tue. In addition, an area of fresh to strong trades will 
develop ahead of the trough axis dominating mainly the waters 
from 13N to 20N between 125W and 136W by Mon night.

Another cold front is expected to approach the far northwest corner
of the area late on Tue. This front is likely to be preceded by 
fresh to strong south to southwest winds, and followed by a large
set of northwest swell.

$$
GR