000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091535 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jan 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A building ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico will support the next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region. Strong winds will begin to funnel through the Chivela Pass late tonight, increasing to gale force by Mon afternoon. Winds are forecast to peak around 40 kt by Mon night, with seas building to up to 16-18 ft. Gale conditions are forecast to likely persist through Thu night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 06N93W. The ITCZ continues from 06N93W to 08N115W to 1011 mb low pressure near 10N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 10N to 15N between 110W and 118W. This convective activity is associated with a surface trough within the ITCZ that is currently located near 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. A ridge associated with a 1021 mb high pressure located near 31N120W currently dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. This system supports mainly light to gentle NW to N winds. Seas are 3-5 ft, except in the Gulf of California where seas are 1-3 ft. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the next several days. The next northwest swell event will reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia late on Tue, building seas to 8-10 ft. Strong high pressure over the southwestern United States is forecast to bring fresh to locally strong northwest winds over the central and southern Gulf of California on Mon and Mon night. On Tue, the fresh to strong northwest winds are expected to be confined to the far northern part of the Gulf, while moderate to fresh northwest winds will be over the remainder of the Gulf. Fresh to strong north winds are expected near Cabo Corrientes Wed night into early Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR High pressure north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas there are in the 6-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, while light to gentle winds are south of the trough. Seas are 3-5 ft due to a south to southwest swell. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will support the fresh to strong east gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo likely through Thu night. Seas generated in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region are forecast to propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador on Tue and Tue night, building seas to 8-12 ft. Little change is expected with winds north and south of the monsoon trough for the next few days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA High pressure of 1021 mb located near 31N120W covers the area north of about 17N and E of 130W. A cold front is moving across the NW corner of the forecast area and extends 30N135W to 27N140W. A new swell event follows the front. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are still noted N of 29N E of the front to 132W. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range across most of the area, except W of the front where seas of 8-10 ft are observed. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will dissipate on Mon. A new set of long-period northwest swell will follow the front building seas up to 13 ft near 30N140W today through Mon. This swell event will propagate across much of the forecast waters W of 115W through at least Wed when another set of large and long period NW swell is forecast to reach the NW waters. The pressure gradient between high pressure and a trough in the tropical region that is now analyzed near 118W is expected to lead to increasing winds and seas across the waters from 13N to 17N between 118W and 132W from tonight through Mon. On Tue, an area of fresh to strong trades will develop ahead of the trough axis dominating mainly the waters from 13N to 19N between 124W and 134W. Another cold front is expected to approach the far northwest corner of the area late on Tue. This front is likely to be preceded by fresh to strong south to southwest winds, and followed by a large set of northwest swell. $$ GR