000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090941
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jan 09 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap-wind event across
the Tehuantepec region is expected to start late tonight when 
strong north winds will surge southward from southeastern Mexico 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale conditions with winds of 
35-40 kt are expected by early Mon afternoon and lasting through 
Thu night. Seas are forecast to build to the range of 11-17 ft 
with these gale conditions Tue and Tue night. Please read the 
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml 
for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from low pressure of 1012 mb over 
Colombia near 09N74W southwestward to 06N85W and to 05N96W, 
where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions
to the ITCZ to 05N108W and to 08N118W, where it pauses east of a
trough. It resumes at 09N131W to beyond the area at 09N140W. 
No significant convection is presently noted.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please
see the Special Features section above for more details.

Ridging currently dominates the offshore forecast waters. A
dissipating front extends from low pressure of 1015 mb over 
southern California southwestward to 30N120W and westward to 
29N128W. Gentle northwest to north winds are behind the front 
east of 120W along with seas of 3-5 ft due to a west to northwest
swell. Light to gentle northwest to north winds were observed 
within the latest scatterometer pass. Seas are 3-5 ft, except in 
the Gulf of California where seas are 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California through the next several 
days. The next northwest swell event will reach the waters north
of Punta Eugenia late on Tue, building seas to 8-10 ft. Strong 
high pressure over the southwestern United States is forecast to 
bring fresh to locally strong northwest winds over the central 
and southern Gulf of California on Mon and Mon night. On Tue, the
fresh to strong northwest winds are expected to be confined to 
the far northern part of the Gulf, while moderate to fresh 
northwest winds will be over the remainder of the Gulf. Fresh to 
strong north winds are expected near Cabo Corrientes Wed night 
into early Thu.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh
northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region.
Seas there are in the 6-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are
noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, while light to 
gentle winds are south of the trough. Seas are 3-5 ft due to a 
south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will support 
the fresh to strong east gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo 
well into the upcoming week. Seas generated in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region are forecast to propagate across the offshore 
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador on Tue and Tue night, 
building seas to 8-12 ft. Little change is expected with 
winds north and south of the monsoon trough for the next few 
days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure covers the area north of about 17N. A dissipating 
cold front extends from low pressure over southern California 
southwestward to 30N120W and westward to 29N128W. Gentle to 
moderate east to southeast winds are behind the front west of 
120W, and gentle northwest to north winds are are elsewhere 
behind this front. Seas are 5-6 ft behind the front west of 120W
and 3-5 ft east of 120W due to a west to northwest swell. Gentle
to moderate trade winds are noted along the southern periphery 
of the ridge. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range across most of the 
area.

For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to support
mainly moderate trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 120W over 
the next couple of days. A cold front that is just northwest of 
the area will move across the northwest forecast waters through 
tonight while weakening. A new set of long-period northwest 
swell will follow the front building seas up to 13 ft near 
30N140W today through Mon. Fresh to strong winds are also 
forecast on either side of the front forecast to reach from near 
30N134W to 25N136W this afternoon, and from 30N131W to 25N133W 
on Sun night. The front is expected to dissipate on Mon. The 
pressure gradient between high pressure and a trough in the 
tropical region that is analyzed from 14N117W to 08N119W is 
expected to lead to increasing winds and seas across the waters 
from 13N to 17N between 117W and 127W from tonight through Mon, 
at which time the trade winds west of 125W from 12N to 21N will 
increase to fresh speeds through at least Tue as the gradient 
over that part of the area tightens. The combined result of these
winds increasing with the aforementioned northwest swell is 
expected to be that of seas building to around 11 ft over a good 
portion of the western half of the area starting Mon. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are noted east and northeast of the 
trough from 10N to 14N between 110W-113W and from 13N to 16N 
between 113W-119W. This activity is being sustained by broad 
diffluent flow aloft that is occurring to the east of an 
extensive upper-level trough that stretches from the southwestern
United States southwest to 24N122W to 15N129W and to southwest 
of the area at 06N140W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
seen east of the trough from 12N to 15N between 112W-117W and 
within 30 nm of line from 12N102W to 12N107W. Another trough is 
analyzed from 14N127W to low pressure of 1010 mb near 10N128W and
to 07N130W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm 
of the low. Isolated showers are possible elsewhere near the low 
and trough.

Another cold front, similar to the present one that has entered 
the northwest part of the area, is expected to approach the far 
northwest corner of the area late on Tue. This front is likely 
to be preceded by fresh to strong south to southwest winds,
and followed by a large set of northwest swell.

$$
Aguirre