469 
AXPZ20 KNHC 082116
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jan 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event across
the Tehuantepec region is expected on Sun night when strong 
north winds surge southward from southeastern Mexico across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale conditions with winds of 35-40 kt are
expected by early Mon afternoon and lasting through Thu night. 
Seas are forecast to peak up to 12-18 ft with this gap wind event
on Tue. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 
07N78W to 06N96W. The ITCZ continues from 06N96W to 11N118W to
beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N 
to 14N between 112W and 124W. A surface trough is analyzed near
this convective complex.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please
see the Special Features section above for more details.

Ridging currently dominates the offshore forecast waters. Light 
to gentle NW to N winds were observed within the latest 
scatterometer pass. Seas are 3-5 ft, except in the Gulf of
California where seas are 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California through the next several 
days. The next NW swell event will reach the waters north of 
Punta Eugenia late on Tuesday, building seas to 8-10 ft. Strong 
high pressure over the southwestern United States is forecast to 
bring fresh to locally strong winds over the central and southern
Gulf of California on Monday. Fresh to strong north winds are 
expected near Cabo Corrientes Wed night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

The Wolf Volcano located in the Galapagos Islands at 00N 91.3W 
is currently producing a plume of volcanic ash moving W to WSW.
This plume is forecast to dissipate within six hours. Mariners 
traveling over these waters should exercise caution. For more 
information please check the website:
www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/messages.html

High pressure north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh NE
to E gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region, confirmed by the 
latest scatterometer data. Seas are 6-8 ft. Light to gentle 
winds are noted elsewhere north of the Monsoon Trough, with 
gentle to moderate winds south of the Monsoon Trough. Seas are 
3-5 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will support 
the fresh to strong east gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo 
through mid-week. Seas generated in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
region are forecast to propagate across the offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador on Tue and Tue night, building seas to
8-12 ft. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of the
monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of
the monsoon trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Ridging associate with a high pressure located north of the area 
dominates the northern forecast waters, mainly north of 15N and 
west of 120W. Gentle to moderate trade winds are noted along the
souther periphery of the ridge. Recent altimeter and model data
indicates that seas have subsided to 5-7 ft across most of the 
area.

For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to support
mainly moderate trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 120W over 
the next couple of days. The next cold front will move across 
the NW corner of the forecast area tonight into Sun. A new set 
of long-period NW swell will follow the front building seas up to
13 ft near 30N140W on Sun and Mon. Fresh to strong winds are 
also forecast on either side of the front forecast to reach from 
30N134W to 25N136W on Sun afternoon, and from 30N131W to 25N133W
on Sun night. The front is expected to dissipate on Mon. The 
pressure gradient between high pressure and a trough within the 
ITCZ is expected to bring increasing winds and seas across the 
waters from 13N to 17N between 117W and 125W.

$$
GR/Mahoney