204 AXPZ20 KNHC 081521 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jan 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 06N100W. The ITCZ continues from 06N100W to east of a trough near 10N115W. The ITCZ then resumes west of the trough 11N120W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 116W and 126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO High pressure of 1020 mb is centered near 30N130W. This feature dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Seas over these waters are in the 3-5 ft range. Light to gentle winds with seas of 3-5 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the next several days producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Seas will remain in the 3-5 ft range through Tuesday. The next NW swell event will reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia late on Tuesday, building seas to 8-10 ft. The next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region is expected on Sun night when strong north winds are surge southward from southeastern Mexico to across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale conditions will be possible beginning late on Mon and lasting through Wed night. Seas are forecast to peak up to 12-18 ft with this gap-wind event on Tue. Strong high pressure over the southwestern United States is forecast to bring fresh to locally strong winds over the central and southern Gulf of California on Monday. Fresh to strong north winds are expected near Cabo Corrientes Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR The Wolf Volcano located in the Galapagos Islands at 00N 91.3W is currently producing a plume of volcanic ash that is spreading westward to over the waters near 92W and from the equator to 01N. Although the plume is becoming faint, mariners traveling over these waters are urged to exercise caution. For more information please check the website: www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/messages.html High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over in the Gulf of Papagayo region along with seas of 6-8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-6 ft continue across the remainder of the forecast waters. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will support the fresh to strong east gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo through mid-week. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to gentle speeds Mon and Tue, then increase back up to moderate to fresh speeds Tue night through Wed night. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA High pressure of 1020 mb located near 30N130W dominates the northern forecast waters, mainly north of 15N and west of 120W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is producing mainly moderate trade winds from 10N to 16N west of 120W. Seas have subsided to 5-7 ft in NW swell across most of the area. For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to support mainly moderate trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 120W over the next couple of days. The next cold front will move across the NW corner of the forecast area Sat night into Sun. A new set of long-period NW swell will follow the front building seas up to 12 ft near 30N140W on Sun. Fresh to strong winds are also forecast on either side of the front forecast to reach from 30N134W to 25N140W on Sun morning, and from 30N130W to 26N134W on Sun evening. The front is expected to dissipate on Mon. The pressure gradient between high pressure and a trough within the ITCZ is expected to bring increasing winds and seas across the waters from 13N to 17N between 117W and 125W. $$ GR/Mahoney