000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070934 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jan 07 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure of 1009 mb that is located over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 10N86W to 07N96W to 09N110W to 08N127W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 112W-126W and within 30 nm south of the ITCZ between 121W-124W. Similar activity is south of the ITCZ within 30 nm of a line from 05N103W to 07N108W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO High pressure of 1019 mb located just north of the area near 31.5N128W dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds based on recent scatterometer data. Seas over these waters are in the 6-8 ft range due to a subsiding NW swell. Moderate NW winds are noted in the central and southern Gulf of California with gentle to moderate winds in the northern part of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds with seas of 3-5 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the high pressure northwest of the region will remain nearly stationary over the next couple of days producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the offshore waters of Baja California. Meanwhile, large NW swell moving into the offshore waters of Baja California and reaching as far south as the Revillagigedo Islands will subside below 8 ft today. The next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region is expected on Sun night, with gale conditions possible Mon through Tue night. Strong high pressure over the southwestern United States is forecast to bring moderate to fresh winds over the central and southern Gulf of California Mon through Tue and the extreme southern part of the Gulf on Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong east gap winds over in the Gulf of Papagayo region along with seas of 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-6 ft are across the rest of the forecast waters. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will support the fresh to strong east gap winds over the Gulf of Papagyo through early next week. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to mainly moderate northerly winds after tonight. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA High pressure of 1019 mb centered just north of the area near 31.5N128W dominates the northern forecast waters, mainly north of 15N and west of 120W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is producing moderate to locally fresh trade winds from 10N to 16N west of 120W, except at times fresh to strong trades from about 09N to 12N between 132W- 136W. Seas in the range of 8-10 ft due to a NW to N swell continue to propagate across the waters from 09N to 20N between 113W-123W, and also from 04N to 19N W of 123W. For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to support a broad area of fresh to locally strong trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 120W over the next couple of days. The above mentioned NW swell will continue to subside over the next 30 hours. A cold front just northwest of the area crossing 140W at 31N tonight will stall this morning, then gradually weaken through Fri. A stronger cold front will move across the NW corner of the forecast area on Sat night into Sun as progged by the global models. A new set of long-period NW swell, possibly producing seas of about 8-11 ft, will follow the front that is forecast to extend from near 30N135W to 25N140W by early Sun morning. Fresh to strong winds are also forecast on either side of the front. $$ Aguirre