000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070353
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jan 07 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure of 1009 mb
that is located over northern Colombia near 09N74W to 10N87W to 
07N96W to 07N102W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that 
it transitions to the ITCZ to 10N114W to 09N124W and to beyond
09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm of
the ITCZ between 113W-120W and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ 
between 123W-128W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure of 1020 mb located near 31N130W dominates the 
offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing mainly 
gentle to moderate NW to N winds based on recent scatterometer 
data. Seas over these waters are in the 6-8 ft range due to
a subsiding NW swell. Moderate NW winds are noted in the central
and southern Gulf of California with gentle to moderate winds in
the northern part of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds with seas 
of 3-5 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the high pressure northwest of the region will
remain nearly stationary over the next couple of days producing 
gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the offshore waters of 
Baja California. Meanwhile, large NW swell moving into the 
offshore waters of Baja California and reaching as far south as 
the Revillagigedo Islands will subside below 8 ft Fri. The next 
gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region is expected on Sun 
night, with gale conditions possible Mon through Tue night. 
Strong high pressure over the southwestern United States is 
forecast to bring moderate to fresh winds over the central and 
southern Gulf of California Mon through Tue and the extreme 
southern part of the Gulf on Tue night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong 
east gap winds over in the Gulf of Papagayo region along 
with seas of 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-6 ft
are across the rest of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will 
support the fresh to strong east gap winds over the Gulf
of Papagyo through early next week. Moderate to fresh NW to N 
winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to mainly moderate 
northerly winds after tonight. Light to gentle winds will occur 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate 
winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1020 mb centered near 31N130W dominates the 
northern forecast waters, mainly north of 15N and west of 120W. 
The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure along
the ITCZ is producing moderate to locally fresh trade winds from
10N to 16N west of 120W, except at times fresh to strong trades 
from about 09N to 12N between 132W-136W. Seas in the range of
8-10 ft due to a NW to N swell continue to propagate across the 
waters from 10N to 22N between 113W-120W, and also from 04N to 
20N W of 120W. 

For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to support a 
broad area of fresh to locally strong trade winds from 10N to 20N
west of 120W over the next couple of days. The above mentioned 
NW swell will continue to subside over the next 42 hours. A cold
front just northwest of the area crossing 140W at 31N tonight
will stall by late tonight and gradually weaken through Fri.
A stronger cold front will move across the NW corner of the 
forecast area on Sat night into Sun. A new set of long-period NW 
swell, possibly producing seas of 8-12 ft, will follow the front
that is forecast to extend from near 30N135W to 25N140W by early
Sat morning. Fresh to strong winds are also forecast on either 
side of the front. 

$$
Aguirre