000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062107
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jan 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located 
over northern Colombia near 10N74W to 07N83W to 09N87W to 
07N105W. The ITCZ continues from 07N105W to 10N115W to 09N120W 
to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to
11N between 115W and 120W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 125W and 135W. Fresh
to strong winds are related to this convective activity.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure of 1024 mb located near 31N130W dominates the 
offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing mainly 
gentle to moderate NW to N winds based on recent scatterometer
data. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range in NW swell. Moderate NW 
winds are noted in the central and southern Gulf of California
with gentle to moderate winds in the northern part of the Gulf. 
Light to gentle winds with seas of 3 to 5 ft persist elsewhere.

For the forecast, the high pressure northwest of the region will
remain nearly stationary over the next couple of days producing
gentle to moderate NW-N winds across the offshore waters of Baja
California. Meanwhile, large NW swell moving into the offshore 
waters of Baja California will reach as far south as the Revillagigedo
Islands by late today, then subside below 8 ft tonight and Fri. 
The next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region is expected
on Sun night, with gale conditions possible Mon through Tue.
Strong high pressure over the SW of US is forecast to bring 
moderate to fresh winds over the central and southern Gulf of 
California Mon through Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh gap winds 
over the Gulf of Papagayo with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to 
moderate winds and seas of 3-6 ft are across the rest of the 
forecast waters.

For the forecast, as high pressure builds N of the area expect
increasing winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region beginning 
on Fri night. These winds will persist through Tue. Moderate to 
fresh NW to N winds are forecast in the Gulf of Panama through 
tonight, then mainly moderate northerly winds will prevail.  
Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of the 
monsoon trough. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1024 mb located near 31N130W dominates the 
northern forecast waters, mainly north of 15N and west of 120W. 
The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure along
the ITCZ is producing moderate to locally fresh trade winds from
10N to 16N west of 120W. Seas of 8-10 ft in NW to N swell
continue to propagate across the waters N of 20N between 115W and
125W, and from 10N to 20N W of 115W. 

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support a broad
area of fresh to locally strong trade winds from 10N to 20N west
of 120W over the next couple of days. The above mentioned NW 
swell will continue to subside over the next 48 hours. The next
cold front will reach 30N140W tonight then stall. A stronger cold
front will move across the Nw corner of the forecast area on Sat
night into Sun. A new set of long period NW swell will follow the
front forecast to extend from 30N135W to 25N140W by early Sat
morning. Fresh to strong winds are also forecast on either side
of the front. 

$$
GR/AM