248 AXPZ20 KNHC 060907 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jan 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 04N80W to 08N85W to 06N90W. The ITCZ continues from 06N90W to 09N110W to 07N115W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 104W and 107W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 127W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A recent altimeter satellite pass showed 8 to 11 ft seas off Baja California as far south as 20N. This is due to large NW swell propagating through the region. Recent scatterometer data showed mainly moderate NW winds off Baja California as well, although a ship observations suggested winds were funneling to 20 kt along the coast. An earlier ship observation also hinted that NW winds were reaching 20 kt along the central and southern Gulf of California, with 4 to 6 ft seas. This is due to relatively high pressure centered northwest of the area and lower pressure farther east over the Sierra Madre Occidental mountains. Farther south, gap winds have completed ended across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas remain 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas persist elsewhere. For the forecast, the high pressure northwest of the region will support fresh NW winds over the central Gulf of California through today. Meanwhile, large NW swell moving into the offshore waters of Baja California will reach as far south as Socorro Island by late today, then subside below 8 ft tonight and Fri. Farther south, fresh winds are possible over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri through Sat as high pressure builds north of the area. Looking ahead, a cold front moving through the western Gulf of Mexico and southern Mexico may deliver gap winds to gale force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo, as reported by an earlier ship observation. Seas there are likely 5 to 7 ft. A couple of ship reported moderate to fresh N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama as well, although a more recent scatterometer observation indicated these winds had diminished at least for now to around 15 kt. Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across this area. Gentle to moderate winds farther south and over the remainder of the waters south of the monsoon trough. Outside of these peak wind areas, seas are in the 3-6 ft across the rest of the forecast waters. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will persist through Fri, then pulse to strong starting Fri night. Moderate to fresh N winds are also expected across the Gulf of Panama through today. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA 1028 mb high pressure centered near 34N131W dominates the waters north of 15N and west of 120W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is producing moderate fresh trade winds from 08N to 20N west of 120W, as observed in recent scatterometer satellite data. Recent altimeter data measured wave heights of 9 to 13 ft across this area as new NW swell propagates into the region. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE to E winds are evident north of 10N west of 110W, with gentle to moderate SE to S winds elsewhere south of 10N west of 110W. Seas area generally 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell across this area. East of 110W, gentle to moderate NE to E gap winds from well offshore of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with 5 to 7 ft seas in NE swell N of 02N. Gentle S to SW breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident south of 07N. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support a broad area of fresh to locally strong trade winds from 10N to 25N and west of 120W this morning, before this area of winds begin to shrink in areal coverage through today. Moderate trade winds are then expected across this region through Fri. The NW swell producing seas of 9 to 14 ft across this area south of 15N late today through Fri will propagate SE and slowly decay through Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into waters near 30N140W late Sat then stall. Fresh to strong SW winds will accompany the front north of 28N west of 130W late Sat into Sun. Another round of large NW swell in excess of 8 ft will also accompany the front, impacting the waters north of 15N and west of 130W Sun into Mon. $$ Christensen