000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060300 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jan 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N77W to 04.5N80W to 08N85W to 1010 mb low pressure near 07.5N88W to 07N105W. The ITCZ continues from 07N105W to 08N110W to 07N115W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 101W and 117W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 128W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO An earlier scatterometer satellite pass and a recent ship observation confirmed fresh to occasionally strong NW winds persist across the central and southern Gulf of California. This is due to relatively high pressure centered northwest of the area and lower pressure farther east over the Sierra Madre Occidental mountains. Moderate to fresh NW winds are noted off Baja California, where large NW swell extends over the offshore waters as far south as Cabo San Lazaro. Farther south, gap winds have completed ended across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas remain 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas persist elsewhere, although wind may occasionally reach 15 to 20 kt off Cabo Corrientes tonight. For the forecast, the high pressure northwest of the region will continue to support fresh NW winds over the central Gulf of California through Thu. Large NW swell moving into the offshore waters of Baja California will reach as far south as Socorro Island Thu. Fresh gap winds are possible again over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri through Sat as high pressure builds north of the area. Looking ahead, a cold front moving through the western Gulf of Mexico and southern Mexico may deliver gap winds to gale force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR High pressure north of the area is supporting strong gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo, as reported by a recent ship observation. Seas there are likely 5 to 7 ft. A couple of ship repoted moderate to fresh N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama as well, and extend downwind to 05N. Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across this area. Gentle to moderate winds farther south and over the remainder of the waters south of the monsoon trough. Outside of these peak wind areas, seas are in the 3-6 ft across the rest of the forecast waters. For the forecast, the fresh winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will diminish overnight, then return again starting Fri night. Moderate to fresh N winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama through Thu. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A ridge extends from 1028 mb high pressure centered near 34N130W to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is producing fresh trade winds from 08N to 22N west of 120W. Recent ship report and earlier altimeter data measured wave heights of 9 to 13 ft across this area as new NW swell propagates into the region. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE to E winds are evident north of 10N west of 110W, with gentle to moderate SE to S winds elsewhere south of 10N west of 110W. Seas area generally 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell across this area. East of 110W, gentle to moderate NE to E gap winds from well offshore of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with 6 to 8 ft seas in NE swell N of 02N. Gentle S to SW breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident south of 07N. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support a broad area of fresh to locally strong trade winds from 10N to 25N and west of 120W overnight, before this area of winds begin to shrink in areal coverage through the early morning. Moderate trade winds are then expected across this region through Fri. The NW swell producing seas of 9 to 14 ft across this area will propagate SE and slowly decay through Fri, with 8 to 12 ft seas over much of the area north of a line from Los Cabos to 04N140W overnight. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into waters near 30N140W late Sat then stall. Another round of large NW swell in excess of 8 ft will accompany the front, impacting the waters north of 15N and west of 130W Sun into Mon. $$ Christensen