000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040259
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jan 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: Strong gales and seas as high 
as 16 ft will persist across and downstream of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec overnight. Strong high pressure is building behind a
cold front that moved through the western Gulf of Mexico and 
southern Mexico Sun and Sun night. The resulting tight pressure 
gradient along with cold, dry air following the front is 
combining to deliver gale-force gap winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec this afternoon, with gales expected to continue 
through Tue morning. Peak seas of 14-16 ft prevail offshore
currently, as observed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass.
Winds and seas will gradually start to diminish through Tue 
morning, then fall below gale force around midday Tue. The strong
gales will generate a large plume of swell in excess of 8 ft 
extending as far as 700 nm downstream from the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through mid week. For further details, please see the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center, at the website:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 05N95W to 09N110W to beyond 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate is noted from 08N to 10N between 115W and 
121W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

1031 high pressure centered north of the area over the Great 
Basin continues to support fresh to strong winds over much of the
central and southern portions of the Gulf of California. 
Moderate to fresh N winds prevail across the northern Gulf, where
seas are 3 to 5 ft. Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail in the central and
southern Gulf of California. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in NW swell 
elsewhere over open waters north of 20N. Farther south, gentle to
moderate SE to E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted elsewhere
south of 20N to western Oaxaca.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area over the 
Great Basin will support fresh NW winds over the central Gulf of 
California through Thu. Large NW swell will start to move into
the waters off Baja California Norte Tue night, reaching as far
south as Cabo San Lazaro through Thu night. Looking ahead, fresh
gap winds are possible again over the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Fri
night as another cold front possibly moves across the western 
Gulf of Mexico and through southern Mexico, although some 
uncertainty remains regarding this event.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Building high pressure north of the area is supporting strong 
gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas are building 
accordingly to 8 ft downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo and 
southern Nicaragua. Moderate NW to N winds prevail over the 
northern Gulf of Panama, with gentle to moderate winds farther 
south and over the remainder of the waters south of the monsoon 
trough. Seas are in the 5-6 range across the Gulf of Papagayo, 
and 3-5 ft across the rest of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds pulsing across the 
Papagayo region will persist through Wed morning, with seas 
to 8 ft. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of the
monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of
the monsoon trough. A strong gale-force gap wind event across 
the Tehuantepec region will generate large NW swell to impact the
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters late today through Tue
night. Looking ahead, fresh gap winds may again pulse across the
Gulf of Papagayo by Fri.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

1026 mb high pressure centered near 30N131W. A recent ship 
observation hinted the high pressure continues to support fresh 
to strong winds from 10N to 25N west of 125W. Recent altimeter
satellite data showed at least to 10 ft in this area as well.  
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE to E winds are evident north of 
10N, with gentle to moderate SE to S winds elsewhere south of 
10N, with 4 to 6 ft seas. 

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support a broad
area of fresh to locally strong trade winds from 10N to 25N and 
west of 120W through mid week. Additional NW swell in excess of 
8 ft will enter the waters north of 25N west of 120W tonight and 
Tue, and reinforce the earlier swell to create 8 to 11 ft seas 
over much of the area north of a line from Los Cabos to 05N140W 
by mid week. Farther east, swell generated from the gale event in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec will bring mixed swell in excess of 8 ft
east of 110W from 06N to 13N from late Mon into Wed.

$$
Christensen