000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012126 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jan 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: Strong high pressure will build behind a cold front forecast to move through the western Gulf of Mexico Sun and southern Mexico Sun night. The resulting tightening pressure gradient along with cooler, drier air following the front will combine to deliver gale-force gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night through early Tue morning. Peak seas will build 16-18 ft offshore before winds start to diminish below gale force early Tue. The gale-force gap winds will generate a large plume of swell in excess of 8 ft extending as far as 700 nm downstream from the Gulf of Tehuantepec through mid week. For further details, please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N75W to 09.5N84W to 09N104W. The ITCZ extends from 06N110W to 09N124W to 11.5N135W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 17N between 119W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A frontal boundary stalled across northern portions of the Sierra Madre Occidentales to near Mazatlan, Mexico across the entrance to the Gulf of California, to just S of Clarion Island. Early afternoon scatterometer passes showed gentle to moderate N to NE winds following the front across the Baja California offshore waters, and fresh northerly winds across the extreme northern Gulf of California. Seas are currently were 8 to 10 ft across the offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia, and 6 to 9 ft between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lucas. Seas have built 5 to 6 ft across the northern Gulf of California and are 2-4 ft elsewhere inside the Gulf. For the forecast, the stationary front will gradually dissipate through tonight. High pressure building west of the area behind the front will support fresh to strong northerly winds late tonight into Sun across most of the Gulf of California and briefly off Cabo Corrientes tonight. Looking ahead, a gale force gap wind event is expected to commence across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region late Sun and continue through early Tue morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh E gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo region this afternoon and extend offshore to near 89W, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate N winds are over the Gulf of Panama, with gentle to moderate winds over the remainder of the waters south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-6 range across the Gulf of Papagayo, and 3-6 ft across the rest of the forecast waters. For the forecast, the E gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse to fresh each of the next few nights as high pressure north of the area weakens. Fresh to strong pulsing will return to the Gulf of Papagayo on Mon. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A stationary front extends from the entrance to the Gulf of California, to just S of Clarion Island. High pressure is building behind the front north of 20N west of 122W, supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas 7 to 9 ft mainly from 13N to 24N west of 122W. In addition, NW swell to 9 ft continues to move through the regional waters behind the front north of 22N east of 126W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are evident elsewhere north of 10N, with gentle to moderate SE to S winds elsewhere south of 10N, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Trade wind convergence in the lower levels along with upper level divergence is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms from 08N TO 17N between 119W AND 140W, along and N of the ITCZ. NW swell will continue to spread southward and subside through Sun. High pressure behind the front will settle along about 30N on Mon to produce a broad area of fresh to locally strong trade winds from 12N to 24N and W of 120W through mid week. Farther east, swell generated from the gale event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will bring mixed swell in excess of 8 ft east of 110W from 06N to 13N from late Mon into mid week. $$ Stripling