000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010328
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jan 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 06N90W to 08N100W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N100W to 10N110W to 11N130W, then resumes 
from 09N135W to beyond 07.5N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection from 08N to 10N between 131W and 135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A cold front reaches from low pressure over southeast Arizona,
across northwest Sonora across the southern Gulf of California
and through southern Baja California Sur into the Pacific to 
just west of Clarion Island. Earlier ship observations confirmed 
fresh to strong NW winds are active behind the front off Baja 
California Norte, with 8 to 10 ft seas. There is also likely 
fresh to strong westerly gap winds over portions of the Gulf of 
California, near relatively lower lying terrain along the 
peninsula, as high pressure builds west of the area behind the 
front. Some shower activity is possible ahead of the front over 
the far southern Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, the front will stall south of Baja California 
to near Clarion Island Sat, then dissipate Sat night into Sun. 
High pressure building west of the area behind the front will
continue to support strong westerly gap winds overnight in the 
northern Gulf of California, followed by fresh to strong 
northerly winds late Sat night into Sun across most of the Gulf 
of California. Looking ahead, a gale force gap wind event is 
expected to commence across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region late 
Sun and continue through early Tue. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh E gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo region and 
extend offshore to near 90W, with light to gentle winds 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate N winds are over 
the Gulf of Panama, with gentle to moderate winds over the 
remainder of the waters south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in 
the 4-6 range across the Gulf of Papagayo, and 3-5 ft across the 
rest of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, gap winds will pulse to strong over the Gulf 
of Papagayo at night through Sun then again Mon evening through 
mid week. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of the
monsoon trough. Moderate N winds will pulse at night across the 
Gulf of Panama, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of 
the monsoon trough. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front from near La Paz, Baja California Sur to just west
of Clarion Island. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds follow the
front. A band of 8 to 9 ft seas in N swell also lags behind the 
front, mainly north of 20N. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are
evident elsewhere north of 10N, with gentle to moderate SE to S
winds elsewhere south of 10N, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Trade wind
convergence in the lower levels along with upper level 
divergence is supporting scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms from 08N to 10N between 131W and 135W, along the
ITCZ.

The cold front will continue moving southward through late
Sat and gradually become ill defined as it becomes stationary 
then gradually dissipates through Sun. The NW swell associated 
with the front will also continue to spread southward, then 
slowly subside this weekend.

$$
Christensen