000 AXPZ20 KNHC 312143 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Dec 31 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2050 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N76W to 08N84W to 06.5N91W to 08N102W. The ITCZ continues from 08N102W to 10N121W to 11N131W, then resumes from 09N135W to beyond 07.5N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 05.5N between 77.5W and 81.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 118W and 125W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N W of 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Deep layered low pressure persists across Baja California Norte and extends SW across the offshore waters, where a 1005 mb surface low center of now located near 32N115W moving E near 10 kt. An associated cold front extends from the low to 24N112W to 17.5N130W. Scattered moderate to heavy showers are seen across far north portions of the Gulf of California. Multi-layered cloudiness with short lines of isolated tstorms aloft are seen ahead of the cold front across Baja California Sur and extend NE across the southern Gulf of California and into NW Mexico. Recent satellite derive scatterometer winds showed fresh NW winds behind the front extending from offshore of Baja Norte to the front just SE of Punta Eugenia. Fresh SW winds were also seen ahead of the front from the nearshore Pacific waters of Baja Sur and in a narrow band inside the southern Gulf of California, where winds elsewhere in the Gulf were moderate from the SW. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-10 ft range in building NW swell west of Baja California and 3-5 ft elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 3-4 ft are noted over the Gulf of California, except to 5 ft along 26N where the band of fresh SW winds prevails. The low and associated cold front will continue moving across Baja California Norte and the Gulf of California through late this evening before entering mainland Mexico. Active weather is expected along and E of the front. Fresh to strong NW winds are expected this evening behind the front N of Punta Eugenia, while fresh to strong W gap winds will follow the front inside the Gulf of California. On Sunday, fresh to strong northerly winds are expected to develop inside the Gulf of California, with seas building to 8 ft and greater across south central portions. Looking ahead, a gale force gap wind event is expected to commence across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region late Sun and continue through early Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh E gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 89W, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate N winds are over the Gulf of Panama, with gentle to moderate winds over the remainder of the waters south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 range across the Gulf of Papagayo, and 3-5 ft across the rest of the forecast waters. Gap winds will pulse to strong over the Gulf of Papagayo at night through Sun before strengthening late Mon. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate N winds will pulse at night across the Gulf of Panama, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front across the northeastern waters extends from Baja California Sur through 24N112W to 17.5N130W. Moderate to fresh winds NW to N are north of the front between 120W and 128W. Light to gentle winds are south of the front to 10N to 15N E of 130W. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds prevail elsewhwere W of the front as high pressure builds into the region. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range north of the front and 5-7 ft elsewhere. The cold front will continue moving southward through late Sat and gradually become ill defined as it becomes nearly stationary offshore of Cabo Corrientes, then gradually dissipates through Sun. The NW swell associated with the front will also continue to spread southward, bringing seas of 8 ft or greater to the waters north of 18N by this evening. The swell will then slowly subside this weekend. $$ Stripling