000 AXPZ20 KNHC 311605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Dec 31 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N75.5W to 08.5N86W to 06.5N92W to 08N97W to 07.5N102W. The ITCZ continues from 07.5N102W to 11N121W, then resumes from 09N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08.5N to 13.5N between 117W and 125W, and from 07N to 10N W of 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Deep layered low pressure persists across Baja California Norte and extends SW across the offshore waters, with a 1005 mb surface low near 32N118W moving SE near 10 kt. An associated cold front extends from the low to 26N116W to 19N130W. Scattered moderate to heavy showers are seen across Baja Norte and the adjacent waters both to the east and west. Multi-layered cloudiness with short lines of isolated tstorms aloft are seen ahead of the cold front across Baja California Sur and extend NE across the central Gulf of California and into NW Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds are noted west of Baja California Norte to the E of the front, while fresh W to SW winds prevail across central and south portions of the Baja offshore waters to the E of the front. Behind the front, fresh NW winds have begun to build across the outer offshore waters. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are occurring over the north and central portions of the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-9 ft range west of Baja California and 3-4 ft elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 3-5 ft are noted over the north and central Gulf of California with 1-3 ft seas over the remainder of the Gulf. The low and associated cold front will move across Baja California Norte and northern Gulf of California today. Active weather is expected along with this system. On Sunday, fresh to strong winds are possible across the Gulf of California. Looking ahead, a gale force gap wind event is expected to commence across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region late Sun and continue through early Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong E gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 89W, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate N winds are over the Gulf of Panama, with gentle to moderate winds over the remainder of the waters south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 range across the Gulf of Papagayo, and 3-5 ft across the rest of the forecast waters. Gap winds will pulse to strong over the Gulf of Papagayo at night through Sun before strengthening late Mon. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate N winds will pulse at night across the Gulf of Panama, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends across the northeastern waters extends through 26N116W to 19N130W. Moderate to fresh winds NW to N are north of the front between 120W and 128W. Light to gentle winds are south of the front to 10N to 15N E of 130W. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds prevail elsewhwere W of the front and high pressure builds into the region. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range north of the front and 5-7 ft elsewhere. The cold front will continue moving southward through tonight before becoming stationary along about 18N and gradually dissipating through Sun. The NW swell associated with the front will also continue to spread southward, bringing seas of 8 ft or greater to the waters north of 20N today. The swell will then slowly subside this weekend. $$ Stripling