000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310830
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Dec 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N89W to 09N98W. The 
ITCZ continues from 09N98W to 10N122W. It resumes from 10N132W 
to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 06N to 15N between 120W and 130W, and from 07N to 10N
between 130W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Low pressure is just west of Baja California Norte near 31N119W 
with associated cold front extending from the low to 30N118W to 
24N118W to 20N140W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted west of 
Baja California. Moderate to fresh winds are noted over the 
northern Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range west of Baja California 
and 3-4 ft elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 3-4
ft are noted over the northern Gulf of California with 1-3 ft 
seas over the remainder of the Gulf. 

The low and associated cold front will move across Baja 
California Norte and northern Gulf of California today. Active 
weather is expected along with this system. On Sunday, fresh to 
strong winds are possible across the Gulf of California. Looking 
ahead, a gale force gap wind event is expected to commence across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec region late Sun and continue through 
early Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong E gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo 
region with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough. Moderate N winds are over the Gulf of Panama, with gentle
to moderate winds over the remainder of the waters south of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 range across the Gulf of 
Papagayo, and 3-5 ft across the rest of the forecast waters.

Gap winds will pulse to strong over the Gulf of Papagayo at night.
Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough. Moderate N winds will pulse at night across the Gulf of 
Panama, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of the 
monsoon trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends across the northern waters from low pressure
near 31N119W to 30N118W to 24N118W to 20N140W. Moderate to fresh
winds are north of the front between 120W and 130W. Light to 
gentle winds are from 10N to 15N east of 127W. Moderate winds 
prevail elswewhere. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range north of the 
front and 5-7 ft elsewhere.

The cold front will continue moving southward through tonight 
before becoming stationary along about 18N and gradually 
dissipating through Sun. The NW swell associated with the front 
will also continue to spread southward, bringing seas of 8 ft or 
greater to the waters north of 20N today. The swell will then 
slowly subside this weekend.

$$
AL