000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310113
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Dec 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N85W to 08N89W to 
08N98W. The ITCZ continues from 08N98W to 10N121W. It resumes 
from 10N132W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 120W and 132W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A cold front is approaching the Baja California Norte offshore
waters with a trough east of the front from 26N115W to 15N125W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 120
nm east of the trough. Moderate to fresh winds prevail within 90
NM east of the trough as well as over the northern Gulf of
California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in
the 5-6 ft range west of Baja California and 3-5 ft elsewhere
over the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 3-4 ft prevail over the
northern Gulf of California with 1-3 ft seas over the remainder
of the Gulf. 

Low pressure north of the area will move southward to a position
west of Baja California tonight. The low and associated cold 
front will move across Baja California Norte and northern Gulf of
California through Fri. Active weather is expected along this 
system. On Sunday, fresh to strong winds are possible across the 
Gulf of California. Looking ahead, a gale force gap wind event is
expected to commence across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region late 
Sun and continue through early Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh E gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo region with 
light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. 
Moderate N winds are over the Gulf of Panama, with gentle to 
moderate winds over the remainder of the waters south of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 3-5 range across the Gulf of 
Papagayo, with 2-4 ft across the rest of the forecast waters.

Gap winds will pulse to strong over the Gulf of Papagayo. Light 
to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of the monsoon trough.
Moderate N winds will pulse at night across the Gulf of Panama, 
with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of the monsoon 
trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends across the northern waters from 30N120W to
24N123W to 21N140W. A surface trough is east of the front from 
26N115W to 15N125W. Fresh to strong winds are north of the front 
between 122W and 130W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere 
north of the front. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north
of 12N and west of 122W as well as south of 08N. Light to gentle
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range north of 
the front and 5-7 ft elsewhere. 

The cold front will continue moving southward through Fri night 
before becoming stationary along about 18N and gradually
dissipating through Sun. The NW swell associated with the front 
will also continue to spread southward, bringing seas of 8 ft or 
greater to the waters north of 20N by Fri. The swell will then
slowly subside this weekend.

$$
AL