000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302200
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Dec 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Colombia near 07N78W
to 08N98W. The ITCZ axis extends from 08N98W to 10N111W to 
09N125W then from 09N135W to 08N140W. A trough is noted from 
13N128W to 08N134W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 08N to 13N between 122W and 137W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure continues to weaken as a 1009 mb low pressure 
located north of the area near 32N121W slides south toward Baja 
California. The pressure gradient between the area of high 
pressure and low pressure north of the area is supporting 
moderate to fresh winds off of Baja California and the northern
Gulf of California. A 1011 mb low is located southwest of Punta 
Eugenia near 27N117W with a trough extending southwest of the 
low near 17N123W. Scattered moderate convection is along the 
trough from 16N to 26N between 113W to 123W. Fresh to strong 
winds are noted near the low. Showers are streaming across the 
offshores of Baja California in addition to the Gulf of 
California. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range west of Baja California 
and 2-4 ft elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 2-4
ft are noted over the northern Gulf of California and 1-3 ft 
over the remainder of the Gulf of California. 

The deep layered low pressure north of the area will continue
moving southward to a position west of Baja California by 
tonight. The low and accompanying significant cold front will 
move across Baja California Norte and northern Gulf of California
through Fri. Active weather is expected along this system. On
Sunday, fresh to strong winds are possible across the Gulf of 
California Looking ahead, a gale force gap wind event is expected
to commence across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region late Sun and 
continue through Tue. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh E gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo region with 
light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. 
Moderate N winds are over the Gulf of Panama, with gentle to 
moderate winds over the remainder of the waters south of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 3-5 range across the Gulf of 
Papagayo, with 2-4 ft across the rest of the forecast waters.

Fresh gap winds will prevail over the Papagayo region through the
rest of today, then pulse to strong at night starting tonight. 
Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough. Moderate N winds will pulse at night across the Gulf of 
Panama, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of the 
monsoon trough. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends across the northern waters from 30N121W to 
23N140W. Fresh to locally strong winds are found north of the 
front. The front is also ushering in a set of NW swell, with 
seas of 8-12 ft over the far NW waters. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters with seas in the 
5-7 ft range.

The cold front will continue shifting southward through Fri night 
before becoming stationary along about 18N and dissipates by Sun.
The NW swell associated with the front will also continue to 
spread southward, bringing seas of 8 ft or greater to the waters 
north of 20N by Fri. The swell will subside by Sat.

$$
AReinhart