000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301611
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Dec 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Colombia near 07N78W
to 08N98W. The ITCZ axis extends from 08N98W to 09N113W to
10N129W then from 09N134W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 123W and 135W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted off the coast of Colombia
and Panama from 04N to 08N between 77W and 83W.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure continues to weaken as a 1006 mb low pressure 
located north of the area near 32N121W slides south toward Baja 
California. The pressure gradient between the area of high 
pressure and low pressure north of the area is supporting 
moderate to fresh winds off of Baja California Sur. Moderate 
winds prevail west of Baja California Norte and northern Gulf of 
California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Showers are 
streaming across the offshores of Baja California in addition to 
the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range west of Baja
California and 3-4 ft elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico.
Seas of 2-3 ft are noted over the northern Gulf of California 
and 1-3 ft over the remainder of the Gulf of California. 

The deep layered low pressure north of the area will shift 
southward to a position west of Baja California by tonight. The 
low and accompanying significant cold front will move across 
Baja California Norte and northern Gulf of California through 
Fri. Active weather is expected along this system. Looking 
ahead, a gale force gap wind event is expected to commence across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec region late Sun and continue through 
Tue. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to locally strong E gap winds prevail over the Gulf of 
Papagayo region with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the
monsoon trough. Moderate N winds are over the Gulf of Panama, 
with gentle to moderate winds over the remainder of the waters 
south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 3-5 range across the
Gulf of Papagayo, with 2-4 ft across the rest of the forecast 
waters.

Fresh gap winds will prevail over the Papagayo region today, 
then will pulse to strong at night starting tonight. Light to 
gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. 
Moderate N winds will pulse at night across the Gulf of Panama, 
with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of the monsoon 
trough. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends across the northern waters from 30N122W to 
24N136W. A 1010 mb low is SW of the front near 25N119W with a 
trough extending south of it to 17N126W. Scattered moderate 
convection is along this trough from 16N to 24N between 115W and 
126W. Fresh to locally strong winds are found north of the front.
The front has also ushered in a fresh set of NW swell, with seas
of 8-11 ft over the far NW waters. Gentle to moderate winds 
prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters with seas in the 
5-7 ft range.

The cold front will continue shifting southward through Sat 
before becoming stationary along about 18N. The NW swell the
front has ushered in will also continue to spread southward, 
bringing seas of 8 ft or greater to the waters north of 20N by 
Fri. The swell will subside by Sat.

$$
AReinhart