000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300811
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Dec 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 09N86W to 07N95W to
08N100W. The ITCZ continues from 08N100W to 09N130W to 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N 
to 10N between 124W and 133W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Weakening 1014 mb high pressure is centered west of Baja
California Sur near 26N114W, with low pressure just north of the
area. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure 
and low pressure north of the area is supporting moderate winds 
west of Baja California Norte as well as over northern 
California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in 
the 4-5 ft range west of Baja California and 3-4 ft elsewhere 
over the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 2-3 ft are noted over 
the northern Gulf of California and 1-3 ft over the remainder of 
the Gulf of California. 

Deep layered low pressure will move across southern California 
and then Baja Norte tonight through Fri, accompanied by a 
significant cold front with active weather. The front will move 
ESE across the Baja Norte offshore waters this evening and 
across the Baja Peninsula and the Gulf of California tonight 
through Fri. Looking ahead, a gale force gap wind event is 
expected to commence across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region late 
Sun. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to locally strong E gap winds prevail over the Gulf of 
Papagayo region with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the
monsoon trough. Moderate N winds are over the Gulf of Panama, 
with gentle to moderate winds over the remainder of the waters 
south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 3-5 range across the
forecast waters.

Fresh gap winds will prevail over the Papagayo region today, 
then will pulse to strong at night starting tonight. Light to 
gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. 
Moderate N winds will pulse at night across the Gulf of Panama, 
with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of the monsoon 
trough. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front has entered the northern waters extending from
30N125W to 28N135W, with a pre- frontal trough from 30N122W to
27N128W. South of these features, surface troughing prevails 
over much of the waters north of 20N. Fresh winds are found north
of the front. The front has also ushered in a fresh set of NW
swell, with seas of 8-10 ft over the far NW waters. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters
with seas in the 5-7 ft range.

The cold front will continue shifting southward through Sat 
before becoming stationary along about 18N. The NW swell the
front has ushered in will also continue to spread southward, 
bringing seas of 8 ft or greater to the waters north of 20N by 
Fri.

$$
AL