000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300123
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Dec 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N84W to 08N102W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N102W to 09N125W to 08N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 07N east
of 80W.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Weakening 1014 mb high pressure is centered west of Baja
California Sur near 25N114W. This is maintaining moderate to 
locally fresh W to SW gap winds prevail over the northern Gulf of
California with light to gentle winds prevail west of the Baja 
California peninsula. Light to gentle winds are also noted 
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range west of Baja California 
and 3-4 ft over the rest of the open waters off Mexico. Seas are
in the 1-3 ft range in the Gulf of California Gulf. 

Winds west of Baja California will remain variable tonight with 
moderate to fresh winds in the northern Gulf of California. Deep 
layered low pressure will move across southern California and 
then Baja Norte Thu night through Fri, accompanied by a 
significant cold front with active weather. The front will move 
ESE across the Baja Norte offshore waters Thu afternoon and 
across the Baja Peninsula and Gulf of California Thu night 
through Fri. Looking ahead, a gale force gap wind event is 
expected to commence across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region late 
Sun. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh E gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo 
region with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough. Moderate N winds are over the Gulf of Panama, with 
gentle to moderate winds over the remainder of the waters south 
of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 3-5 range across the 
forecast waters.

Fresh gap winds will prevail over the Papagayo region through
Thu, then will pulse to strong at night starting Thu night. Light
to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough. Moderate N winds will pulse at night across the Gulf of 
Panama, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of the 
monsoon trough. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface troughing prevails across the waters north of 20N. This
is resulting in a loose pressure gradient over the waters north
of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W, where light to gentle winds
prevail. Moderate to fresh winds are noted over the waters north
of 20N and west of 130W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere.
Seas from the NW swell that have dominated the waters north of
15N and west of 120W have subsided below 8 ft over much of the
area. A fresh set of NW swell has moved into the NW waters where
seas of 7-9 ft are noted. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere. 

The cold front expected across the Baja Peninsula late in the
week will sink southward across the northern waters tonight 
through Sat before becoming stationary along about 18N. The 
NW swell that has propagated into the northern waters will 
spread southward, bringing seas of 8 ft or greater to the waters 
north of 20N by Fri.

$$
AL