000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292202
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Dec 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W 
to 08N98W. The ITCZ continues from 08N98W to 09N125W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 77W and 
80W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A ridge of high pressure extends across the waters west of 
Baja California. Moderate to locally fresh W to SW gap winds 
prevail over the northern Gulf of California, while light to gentle
winds prevail west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to 
gentle winds are also noted elsewhere with no significant 
convection. Seas are in the 3-6 across Baja California and the 
open waters off Mexico. Seas are 2-4 ft in the northern Gulf of 
California and 1-3 ft in the southern portions of the Gulf. 

Winds west of Baja California will stay variable tonight with
moderate to fresh winds in the northern Gulf of California. 
Deep layered low pressure will move across southern California 
and then Baja Norte Thu night through Fri, accompanied by a 
significant cold front with active weather. The front will move 
ESE across the Baja Norte offshore waters Thu afternoon and 
across the Baja Peninsula and Gulf of California Thu night 
through Fri. Looking ahead, a gale force gap wind event is 
expected to commence across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region late 
Sun.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh E gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo 
region with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough. Moderate N winds are over the Gulf of Panama, with 
gentle to moderate winds over the remainder of the waters south 
of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 3-5 range across the 
forecast waters.

Fresh gap winds will prevail over the Papagayo region throughout
Thu, then will pulse to strong at night starting Thu night. 
Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough. Moderate N winds will pulse at night across the Gulf of 
Panama, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of the 
monsoon trough. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak ridge of high pressure prevails across the northern 
waters, with a relatively loose pressure gradient across the
area. A 1013 mb low is located near 23N122W. Gentle to moderate  
winds prevail from 20N to 27N and W of 120W. Light to gentle 
winds are noted over much of the area from 06N to 20N and west of
120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the remainder of the
discussion waters. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are
approaching 30N from a cold front sliding southward toward the 
forecast waters. NW to N swell continues to dominate seas across 
the region N of 20N and W of 120W with seas in the 7-9 ft range.

The cold front expected across the Baja Peninsula late in the
week will sink southward across the northern waters tonight 
through Sat before becoming stationary along about 18N. This 
front will usher in a new set of NW to N swell into the 
discussion area tonight. The swell will spread southward, 
bringing seas of 8 ft or greater to the waters north of 20N once 
again by Fri.

$$
AReinhart