539 
AXPZ20 KNHC 291557
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Dec 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 07N78W
to 08N97W. The ITCZ continues from 08N97W to 09N103W then from
08N113W to 10N124W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 01N to 07N between 79W and 84W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A ridge of high pressure extends across the waters west of 
Baja California. Fresh to strong W to SW gap winds continue to 
prevail over the northern Gulf of California, while gentle to 
moderate winds prevail west of the Baja California peninsula.
Showers are noted moving across Baja California Sur and the 
southern Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are noted 
elsewhere with no significant convection. Seas are in the 6-8 ft 
range west of Baja California Norte and 6-7 ft west of Baja 
California Sur. Seas of 3-5 ft are elsewhere over the open waters
off Mexico. Seas of 3-5 ft are seen over the north portions of 
the Gulf of California with 2-3 ft seas elsewhere over the Gulf 
waters. 

The strong W to SW winds over the northern Gulf of California 
will diminish this morning. Winds west of Baja California will 
become variable today. Deep layered low pressure will move across
southern California and then Baja Norte Thu night through Fri, 
accompanied by a significant cold front with active weather. The 
front will move ESE across the Baja Norte offshore waters Thu 
afternoon and across the Baja Peninsula and Gulf of California 
Thu night through Fri. Looking ahead, a gale force gap wind event
is expected to commence across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region 
late Sun.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to locally strong E gap winds prevail over the Gulf of 
Papagayo region with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the
monsoon trough. Moderate N winds are over the Gulf of Panama, 
with gentle to moderate winds over the remainder of the waters 
south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 3-5 range across the
forecast waters.

Fresh to locally strong gap winds will prevail over the Papagayo
region throughout Thu, then will pulse to strong at night 
starting Fri night. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere 
north of the monsoon trough. Moderate N winds will pulse at night
across the Gulf of Panama, with gentle to moderate winds 
elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak ridge of high pressure prevails across the northern 
waters, with a relatively loose pressure gradient across the
area. A 1011 mb low is located near 22N124W with a trough
extending along the low from 25N122W to 19N124W. Near the low,
moderate to fresh winds are noted with moderate winds from 20N to
25N and W of 120W. Light to gentle winds are noted over much of 
the area from 06N to 20N and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate 
winds prevail over the remainder of the discussion waters. 
Subsiding NW to N swell continues to dominate seas across the 
region N of 20N and W of 120W with seas in the 7-9 ft range. 
Seas of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere. The NW swell will subside 
today, with seas briefly dropping to 7-8 ft. 

The cold front expected across the Baja Peninsula late in the
week will sink southward across the northern waters this 
afternoon through Sat before becoming stationary along about 18N.
This front will usher in a new set of NW to N swell into the
discussion area tonight. The swell will spread southward, 
bringing seas of 8 ft or greater to the waters north of 20N once 
again by Fri.

$$
AReinhart