340 
AXPZ20 KNHC 290722
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Dec 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N100W. The ITCZ 
continues from 08N100W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 117W and 120W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A ridge of high pressure extends across the waters west of 
Baja California. Fresh to strong W to SW gap winds prevail over 
the northern Gulf of California, while gentle to moderate winds
prevail west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle 
winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range west of 
Baja California Norte and 6-7 ft west of Baja California Sur. 
Seas of 3-5 ft are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. 
Seas of 3-5=6 ft are seen over the north and central portions of
the Gulf of California with 2-3 ft seas elsewhere over the Gulf 
waters. 

The strong W to SW winds will diminish this morning. Winds west
of Baja California will become variable today. Deep layered low 
pressure will move across southern California and then Baja Norte
Thu night through Fri, accompanied by a significant cold front 
with active weather. The front will move ESE across the Baja 
Norte offshore waters Thu afternoon and across the Baja Peninsula
and Gulf of California Thu night through Fri. Looking ahead, a 
gale force gap wind event is expected to commence across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec region late Sun.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh E gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo 
region with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough. Moderate N winds are over the Gulf of Panama, with gentle
to moderate winds over the remainder of the waters south of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 3-5 range across the forecast 
waters.

Fresh gap winds will prevail over the Papagayo region throughout
Thu, then will pulse to strong at night starting Fri night. 
Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough. Moderate N winds will pulse at night across the Gulf of 
Panama, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of the 
monsoon trough. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak ridge of high pressure prevails across the northern 
waters, with a relatively loose pressure gradient across the
area. This is supporting moderate winds roughly from 20N to 25N 
and west of 120W. Light to gentle winds are noted over much of 
the area from 06N to 20N and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate 
winds prevail over the remainder of the discussion waters.
Subsiding NW to N swell continues to dominate seas across the 
region N of 20N and W of 120W with seas in the 7-9 ft range. Seas
of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere. The NW swell will subside today,
with seas briefly dropping to 7-8 ft. 

The cold front expected across the Baja Peninsula late in the
week will sink southward across the northern waters this 
afternoon through Sat before becoming stationary along about 18N.
This front will usher in a new set of NW to N swell into the
discussion area tonight. The swell will spread southward, 
bringing seas of 8 ft or greater to the waters north of 20N once 
again by Fri.

$$
AL